Nigel Stanley
We do not yet know how much the financial crisis will destabilise the ‘real’ economy where most people live and work, (usually in complete ignorance of what the recipients of big City bonuses actually do), but there is no doubt that we are in for a rough ride.
Richard Exell
The TUC expects long-term unemployment (that is people unemployed over a year) to rise from 400,000 to 700,000 by the end of 2009. This is a depressing figure, but it wouldn’t be any higher than the level the Government inherited in 1997. For all the talk of records being set, I don’t expect anything like the million-plus level of long-term unemployment we saw in the early 1990s.
If they concentrated on the contrast with the Conservative record the current Government would actually have quite a strong story, they could do very well by playing to their strengths. So it is all the more disappointing that the latest welfare reforms give the impression that they are trying to dodge the blame for unemployment by shifting it on to the victims.
Nigel Stanley
The main issue at this year’s Lib Dem conference, from which I have just returned, has been their new tax policy (set out in a speech earlier in the year by Nick Clegg here). In many ways it captures the difficulties the party faces in these changed political times.
Adam Lent
The developing crisis on Wall Street will raise a long and intense debate about state regulation of the capital markets. But the problem is not just the rules that govern trading, it is also the culture of major financial centres which in recent years has clearly become deeply irresponsible and even more herd like than in the past.
Tim Page
This was an important week for manufacturing industry. The Government launched its refreshed manufacturing strategy in a document which states: “Looking forward, a thriving manufacturing sector is central to the future success of the British economy.”
We couldn’t agree more. But what will that sector look like?
Nicola Smith
Theresa May has accused Harriet Harman of living in a dream world, and engaging in class warfare. Ms Harman’s crime is recognising that class inequalities have a significant impact on life chances. Apparently this rhetoric belongs 20 years in the past – presumably becuase social class no longer makes much of a difference to any of us.
Paul Sellers
There is no doubt that the credit crunch has squeezed most of the life out of the mortgage market, but are house prices really falling as fast as the lenders say? The answer is ‘no’, and this is because a significant minority of houses are actually bought without credit and therefore do not show up in the lenders’ surveys.
Adam Lent
Richard Murphy notes the news that corporate tax avoidance was central to the weakness of Fannie and Freddie. ”Deferred tax” was a key part of the work Richard did for the TUC in The Missing Billions. The pamphlet critiqued deferred tax for the vast sums this technique denies to public funds. The fact that it may also have played a part in the current global crisis is obviously of enormous importance. How many UK banks are playing the same dangerous game?
Adam Lent
The EU’s prediction of recession in the UK is widely reported. More importantly, a debate about how to respond is slowly taking shape. A good article by Seumus Milne in The Guardian today on this and Paul Mason on Newsnight yesterday quoted figures from my previous post on a fiscal stimulus. Paul suggested the Government may be considering this option.
Nicola Smith
Cycling low-skilled temporary migrant workers in and out of the country, refusing them opportunities for settlement, is not a sensible way to run an economy – it reduces efficiency and increases costs for employers. Unfortunately this OECD position contradicts the opinion of the Home Office, whose new points based system will prevent many migrants with low skills from accessing routes to settlement, actively promote temporary work and increase the risks of mistreatment that workers face.
The OECD’s work is seen as authoritative and influential - it is testament to the politicisation of UK migration policy that this publication is unlikely to have much impact.
