Brendan Barber
2009 has to mark a decisive turning point, away from the neo-liberal market-always-knows-best conventional wisdom that brought our economy to the brink of a catastrophic collapse, towards a fairer, more balanced economy delivering sustainable prosperity.
This is going to be a grim year. Unemployment will increase every month. Some predict it will hit three million, but in truth no-one knows.
Nigel Stanley
Channel 4 likes to shock, but their decision that President Ahmadinejad of Iran – a regime that that both locks and beats up trade unionists -was a suitable person for their alternative Christmas broadcast was wrong.
Nicola Smith
Today we have published our second TUC Recession Report. Since we produced our first analysis the news has been dismal. The latest figures from Eurostat show that the economy has been shrinking in both the UK and the Euro area, and that this country entered the recession ahead of most other European countries. Independent economic forecasters are predicting that 1.6 million people will be claiming JSA by the end of 2009, and this is looking increasingly conservative. The latest data show that the claimant count rose by 75,700 just in November.
Nicola Smith
Today’s figures show that long-term unemployment (over 12 months) has increased, reaching 438,000, 54,000 higher than in October 2007.
The number of redundancies in August-October 2008 have also risen 180,000 – up from 139,000 in May–July 2008 – with increases across all industries. The worst affected areas have been distribution, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications, and finance and business services.
In this context we are renewing our calls for Jobseekers Allowance to be increased to give some relief to the millions of people faced with a sudden reduction in their income. Importantly, this measure would also help the wider economy as experts agree that putting money into the hands of those who need it most is the fastest way to provide an economic stimulus, as these people are more likely to spend their cash.
Watch this space for our recession report which will be posted here by the end of the day on Friday.
Nicola Smith
Today’s unemployment figures show that at the end of October this year 1,864,000 people in the UK were unemployed. We predict that by the time we get the figures for December they will show that 2 million people were out of work and seeking it over Christmas. Even more concerning is the rise in the claimant count – which reflects the situation in November and therefore draws on more recent data. This month there has been a 75,700 increase in the number of people claiming JSA – demonstrating a dramatic increase in the rate at which people are losing their jobs.
Nigel Stanley
The CBI have joined the fray on public sector pensions.
Of course they are more subtle than the Taxpayers’ Alliance and right-wing tabloids in their arguments, but they will still be seized on by all those aiming to stir up pensions envy from private sector staff understandably angry about not having a pension. And I thought it was the left that was accused of the politics of envy.
Nigel Stanley
Once again the Taxpayers Alliance are all over the media. Today’s claim is that councils are spending millions on ‘spin’ through an analysis of council’s PR budgets. But this is even more thinly based than most TPA reports. Councils have a statutory duty to advertise things like planning applications – hardly spin. Nor do I think the leaflet that comes through my door at this time of year telling me when the bins will be emptied over Christmas is propaganda, simply useful information.
Adam Lent
David “Danny” Blanchflower will be stepping down from the Monetary Policy Committee next year. I have sung his praises elsewhere and, of course, since the crash he has taken on the aura of a latter day prophet. It’s a shame that the MPC will be losing the one member who saw it all coming. But it’s also a pity, should one be fond of mischief, to miss the squirming that would have occurred over his reappointment to the MPC. Blanchflower may have got it right but he wasn’t exactly coy about his view that everyone else was getting it wrong. The Bank would almost certainly have had to accept his reappointment but through teeth gritted to the point of breaking.
Philip Pearson
Everyone here at the UN Climate Change conference in Poznan is speaking about two key issues now – the EU’s climate package, and the incoming Obama administration – and their impact on securing a new climate change treaty in 2009.
Adam Lent
Lots of Tory glee today about comments by Peer Steinbruck apparently criticising the Government’s fiscal stimulus. It’s worth reading the whole interview by Steinbruck however before getting carried away. It’s clear he is not arguing against fiscal stimulus as such (the German’s have just agreed their own 32 billion euro package after all) but against attempts by politicians to outdo each other with the size of their stimulus (which all sounds faintly lewd). He makes the point that there is no stimulus that can stop this recession altogether.
