Owen Tudor

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) seems to have won a landslide in this weekend’s General Election, displacing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) which, more than any other around the world, represented liberal capitalism. The DPJ is not a socialist party by any means, but in today’s crisis-ridden world, its victory is still enormously important (it is closer to the Japanes trade unions than the LDP ever was, and is arguing for more action on climate change, a more independent foreign policy, and policies to tackle growing inequality).

Following the continuing shift in the USA towards the Democrats (and President Obama’s election to the White House less than a year ago), the non-European left seems to be more resurgent than anyone expected before the crisis began: the G20 which meets in Pittsburgh next month will now have more left leaders than ever. So those who have been asking “why hasn’t the left benefited from the crisis of capitalism” may now have their answer. Generally speaking, the world continues to shift leftwards – from Latin America where the left is now more dominant than at any time in history, through South Africa, Australia, and into the far east. But why not in Europe?

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• QE or not QE – that is the question
  Chris Cook, LabourList's economics guru, explains how quantitative easing works and suggest a less banker friendly way of doing it.
• Professional Pensions defends the public sector
• Media guidelines: Reporting the TaxPayers’ Alliance
  The usual mix of insight and humour from the indispensable Other TaxPayers' Alliance
• Dave Prentis: The politics of pension envy are perverse – Yorkshire Post

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Nigel Stanley

With TUC Congress only weeks away we are all too busy to do much blogging at the moment, but this is too good to miss.

There is of course much comment on Adair Turner’s splendid remarks on finance, including serious arguments on both sides. But then there is this:

Howard Wheeldon, of the stockbroking firm BGC Partners, said Turner had moved beyond his brief in making those comments and it would be “time to turn the lights out in the UK” if the tax were imposed. “Quite honestly I am appalled, disgusted, ashamed and hugely embarrassed that I should have lived to see someone … who already commands a senior and crucially important position as effective head of the UK regulatory regime, making such damaging and damning remarks.”

They don’t like it up ‘em, do they?

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Nigel Stanley

Today both the Morning Star and the Daily Express, from their very different perspectives, predict that we are in for an “autumn of discontent” as there are a number of possible strikes in the pipeline. I rather expect that there will be more of sightings of discontent in the next few days, given that even the Press Association’s admirable Alan Jones – about the only full time industrial correspondent left – used the phrase today too. But none of them should.

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Nicola Smith

Read the TUC Recession Report for August 2009

Our latest Recession Report concludes that long-term unemployment will continue to rise for a long time. This month, for the first time in this recession, the number unemployed over 6 months passed the 1 million mark, reaching 1,002,000 – it has been below that level since July 1997. There are now 533,000 people who have been unemployed for over 12 months and 232,000 who have been unemployed for over 24 months. These are the highest figures since June 1998 and July 2000 respectively.

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Nigel Stanley

The Guardian deserves much praise for Polly Curtis’s story today finding that 50% of private school pupils get A grades in their A levels. Polly writes that this is:

“prompting claims that attempts to break the middle-class stranglehold on entry to higher education have failed this year.” (our emphasis).

But going to private school does not put you in the middle of anything.

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Owen Tudor

The Migration Advisory Committee has published another report on reforms to the Points-Based System of migration, and the TUC’s response welcomes some of the steps proposed (we’ll issue a more detailed, considered response in due course) which could tighten up the protections against abuses of the migration system. As always, our concern is to prevent exploitation and undercutting, protecting both migrant and the existing workforce. But one thought nags at me. Throughout the MAC press release, there are references to measures which will protect jobs for “British” workers. That makes me nervous. I think it’s dangerous, inappropriate and misguided.

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Tim Page

Yesterday’s news that France and Germany  have moved out of recession gave us some much needed summer cheer. Both economies grew by 0.3% in the three months to the end of June, surprising commentators. Since, between them, Germany and France account for almost 48% of eurozone GDP , the eurozone itself fell by only 0.1% in the last quarter.

But wait! This does not necessarily mean that the downturn is coming to an end. Most other European economies are still in negative growth territory – the UK clearly so, as pointed out by Bank Governor Mervyn King on Wednesday. The risk of a W-shaped recession in France and Germany still remains. Yet we rejoice in every positive sign and yesterday’s news from Paris and Berlin was just such a sign.

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Richard Exell

How many people want work but can’t get it? A lot more than you’d think.

The unemployment figures never tell us the full story about recessions, the true measure of how many men and women are frozen out of jobs is always much higher. By the middle of 2009 there were four and a half million people who hadn’t got a job but wanted one; and three quarters of a million who hadn’t got as much work as they wanted.

When the unemployment figures start to hit the headlines, many people are surprised to learn that there are two measures of unemployment, and the ‘claimant count’ (the number claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance) is a lot lower than the headline figure. This can be a healthy reminder that Jobseeker’s Allowance isn’t the skivers’ hand-out of reactionary fantasy – large numbers of people who don’t have a job and are trying to get one never qualify for Jobseeker’s Allowance.

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Nicola Smith

Today the latest labour market statistics show that during the period April – June 2009 unemployment hit 2,435,000, a national rate of 7.8%. This is a quarterly increase of 220,000, which is the 4th highest on record (the top three places were filled at the height of the 1980s recession and by the 244,000 increase we saw at the start of this year). Employment has fallen 271,000 on the quarter, the redundancy rate is still high and levels of long-term unemployment are moving up – 543,000 people have now been out of work for over 12 months and 140,000 of them are aged 18-24. The speed at which jobs are being lost is not increasing, but there is little evidence to suggest that it is starting to significantly slow.

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