This means unemployment is lower than it might have been. But I’m not sure it follows that unemployment will fall faster as recovery begins. Labour hoarding employers will simply restore full-time working rather than take on new staff.

A disprorportionate number of those on the dole will be those with fewer skills, young people with no work experience or older workers with skills and experience gained in declining industries that won’t see much recovery. It may be quite hard for them to find new jobs.

I worry that this may add up to something of a jobless recovery.