Nicola Smith

In late November the Chancellor was confident that the economy was moving towards ‘sustainable growth‘, an argument that it will be hard to make after today’s figures.  The drop in quarterly GDP growth is 1.2 percentage points, equivalent to the largest drop that we saw during the recent recession (where quarterly growth fell from -0.9 to -2.1 between Q3 and Q4 of 2008) and during last quarter every sector of the economy bar production was shrinking. Although ONS concludes that the bad weather may have contributed to the fall they estimate that the snow is only responsible for around 0.5 per cent of the quarterly GDP reduction – and that had there been no disruption GDP would be ‘flattish’. This would still leave us with a drop of 0.7 points and an extremely worrying economic outlook.

You can read our General Secretary Brendan Barber’s reaction to today’s statistics here.

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• YouTube – ONSstats’s Channel
  ONS have launched a helpful set of video podcasts providing further explanation of recent labour market trends – well worth a look!
• Report by Social Security Advisory Committee
  The Government has published its response to the Social Security Advisory Committee’s report on cuts to the Sure Start Maternity Grant. The Government has refused to accept any of the committee’s concerns.

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Richard Exell

As part of the softening up process for today’s announcement of a new work experience programme yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph included an article by Alasdair Palmer headed “Youth unemployment: can’t work or won’t work?” He says that “the conventional story” is that youth unemployment is down to the recession, but that “there is evidence that it may not be the whole truth.”

The evidence? He’s spoken to Christine Snell, who runs a soft fruit farm in Herefordshire. “She recruits almost the whole of her workforce abroad, mostly from Bulgaria and Romania” even though she “desperately” wants to recruit locals. And he’s spoken to Dr David Green of Civitas, who says that the benefits system “encourages people not to go out to work – they don’t have to, because they can live adequately on benefits.”

(“Adequately” – it’s a terribly interesting word, isn’t it? Jobseeker’s Allowance for a single person under 25 is £51.85 a week. Benefits may – or may not – also cover their rent and Council Tax, but the amount they’ll have to spend on food, clothing, heating and so on is £51.85. There may be some young people used to pocket money who may think that sounds great, but the experience of living on that very soon disabuses them.)

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Richard Exell

Today the government published their plans for new regulations on Sure Start Maternity Grants. The Grants help low-income families meet the extra costs of maternity and having a new baby and the government’s plans will stop families qualifying if they already have a child under 16. This will halve the numbers qualifying and cut spending £73 million a year.

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Nicola Smith

The Government’s use of clock-based metaphors continues, with Chris Grayling today declaring that Labour have left the Coalition a ‘ticking time bomb‘ of 250,000 children aged 0-15 who live in families where no one has ever worked. (Hat tip to Declan Gaffney – who has written more on this at Left Foot Forward).

Following recent criticisms of their use of statistics, DWP have now taken to publishing analysis on their website as well as press releasing the stats – and a quick look at the report in question shows that, again, all is not as it seems. The use of the term ‘never worked’ is questionable, and the implication that any workless family with children should be in employment is misleading.

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Richard Exell

Dozens of famous and influential people have signed a letter to today’s Sunday Telegraph opposing the Public Authorities Bill, which “will authorise the Government to sell the whole of our public forest estate to commercial interests on the open market.” (Available here – scroll down to “Government must not sell our public forest”.)

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Richard Exell

The Local Government Association has warned that councils in England face a £165 million funding gap to repair the potholes caused by the winter’s bad weather. The coldest December for 100 years has left thousands of roads needing many repairs. Despite this increased need, the government has provided local authorities £165 million less in capital funding for road repairs than they had in 2010.

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• Benefit fraud error: Minister apologises
  The Methodist Church have successfully challenged the DWP’s misuse of benefit and fraud statistics
• Eric Pickles’ cuts claims dealt blow
  Local Government Chronicle reveals that three Conservative controlled Councils – singled out for praise by Eric Pickles for merging Departments – have also made serious cuts. The government argues that service cuts aren’t needed if local authorities make efficiency savings, but this evidence suggests otherwise.
• Financial Inclusion Fund to End
  The Legal Action Group AG has learnt that the Financial Inclusion Fund (FIF) will end in March. FIF pays for just under 500 debt advisors based in Citizens Advice Bureaux and other not for profit (NfP) advice centres.
• Thirty volunteer centres fear closure because of council cuts – Third Sector
  Volunteering England CEO reports that 30 volunteer centres around the country have already warned that they face closure becuase of cuts.

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Anjum Klair

The Government claims that the spending cuts will be fair and progressive and maintain that the most vulnerable will be protected. However as we have reported many times, the cuts have been hitting the most vulnerable and they continue to do so.   

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Alastair Hatchett

Average weekly earnings grew at 2.1% in the year to November 2010 while RPI inflation hit 4.8% in December, the month before VAT rises to 20%. This means that over the course of 2010 most employees have seen a reduction of nearly 3 percentage points in the value of their earnings. Figures from the Office for National Statistic released on 19 January show overall earnings growth is consistent with the IDS measure of pay settlements which rose at the median from 2% to 2.2% in the last months 2010.

The real picture, however, is uneven with earnings growth stronger in some parts of the economy and weaker elsewhere.

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