Today’s trade figures show that the trade deficit for goods and services hit £4.8 bn in December and the deficit for goods alone was £9.2 bn; both were the worst figures ever. The annual trade deficit for 2010 was £46.2 bn, up from £29.7 bn in 2009. The £51 bn annual surplus on trade in services was down £1.7 bn from 2009.
In December, there was a £3.4 bn deficit in trade with EU members, which is not out of line with other months. But getting on for two thirds of our trade is with non-EU members, where the deficit – £5.8 bn – is the worst ever. The £42.2 bn 2010 annual trade deficit with EU members was up £4.4 bn from 2009. The deficit with non-EU members in 2010 was £55 bn, up £10.4 bn from 2009.
The government’s hopes for an export-led recovery can’t stand many more results like this. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook forecast a 2010 deficit of £37 bn (see table 3.6), not £46 bn; this is the equivalent of about an extra third to half a per cent off GDP.