Nigel Stanley

Steve Webb is today hinting that the government will introduce a further increase in the state pension age  to 67 by 2026. This may provide slightly more notice than the government has given to women, but is not likely to be very popular.

Steve Webb’s dilemma is that he undoubtedly wants people to have decent pensions when they retire, but the Treasury will not give him any extra money. Reducing the number of people eligible for a state pension allows a higher pension to be paid to them at the same cost to the Treasury.

But increasing the state pension age does not extend anyone’s working life. If it meant everyone had a chance to carry on working in a decent job they liked for another year, it would be an easier message to sell.

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Owen Tudor

We’re definitely into the final furlong for political agreement on a Robin Hood Tax, although of course implementation will take time. On Friday, the French and German Finance Ministers sent EU Commissioners a three page letter with a four page annex making formal proposals for a broad-based Financial Transactions Tax (believed to be set at a rate of between 0.01% and 0.1% although there are no numbers in their letter or annex) – see below for more details. Crucially, they say “we believe the European Union should lead the global mobilisation on this issue.”

Meanwhile, the European Commission itself is planning a discussion at the EU Finance Ministers meeting at the beginning of October – probably very similar, as we understand it’s been written by someone seconded from the German finance ministry. And on a slightly different track, Bill Gates is finalising the report French President and G20 chair Nicolas Sarkozy asked him to prepare on innovative financing for development, which will be discussed at a joint meeting of G20 finance and development ministers in Washington at the end of September. Thence it will go to the formal G20 summit in Cannes at the beginning of November. It is widely believed that Gates’ report will recommend a Financial Transactions Tax – among other mechanisms – to raise funds for meeting the Millennium Development Goals.

So the next eight weeks will be crucial ones for the Financial Transactions Tax campaign. Get ready to campaign hard against frantic lobbying (see the arguments buried in this on Bloomberg) from the finance sector!

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Owen Tudor

The end of the second global week of action for freedom in Swaziland has suggested that the end might at last be on the way for the last feudal monarchy in Africa. In an echo of the Arab Spring that spread across Northern Africa earlier this year, protesters began to resist the security forces where once they would have scattered.

Solidarity action was mounted in twenty other African countries as well as on other continents – including here in London where the TUC handed in a protest letter to the High Commission. Protests in South Africa – led by COSATU, whose delegation to Swaziland was summarily deported – focused on the South African Reserve Bank R2.4bn bail-out that has provided a last lifeline to the Swaziland Government, and which South African trade unionists have roundly condemned, including for containing no conditions such as requiring human rights be observed. COSATU General Secretary Zwelinzima Vavi said “We are saying it was a mistake… that’s our tax money you are giving to them.”

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Nicola Smith

Yesterday brought a new wave of recognition about the poor state of the UK’s economic prospects, and the risks that austerity poses for generating the demand we need to secure the recovery. With independent forecasts now anticipating growth of only 1.3% over the rest of the year (and the OECD predicting even less), the global recovery slowing, household and business confidence falling across the UK as well as the rest of the world and unemployment starting to rise even stagnation is starting to look as if it would be a positive outcome.

But while many in the business lobby are starting to recognise the need for a stimulus, they are reticent to acknowledge that this could require any change in the Government’s deficit reduction strategy.

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Brendan Barber

Next week sees the TUC’s 143rd annual Congress in London, and a lot has happened since the union movement met in Manchester last year.

A year ago we were being told that everything was set for recovery. Yet here we are 12 months later facing a real prospect of a double-dip recession.  Trying to eliminate the deficit in just four years can now be seen as nothing more than a national programme of self-harm.

It has killed both consumer and business confidence. With the cuts already putting the brake on government investment, the net result is that almost no-one is investing. Yet without growth there is no prospect of closing the deficit gap in the short, medium or long term.

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Tim Page

Harold Wilson said that a week is a long time in politics. It sometimes feels that way in economics too. From Sunday to Tuesday, I was in Paris with TUAC, the Trade Union Advisory Committee to the OECD. Trade union economists from the US, across Europe, Japan, Indonesia, India and many other corners of the globe gathered in collective gloom about the state of the world economy. Even in the last few weeks, it feels as if another world downturn is much more likely than it had been earlier in the summer.

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John Wood

Wages failing to keep up with inflation, tax and benefit changes and cuts in public services all combined are going to dramatically reduce the living standards of many British families by 2013, according to our latest research.

In Unhappy Families, the first analysis of this ‘living standards gap’, we’ve looked at the effect on four typical British families, and found their living standards are set to be hit by between 6% and 10%. Have a look at the headline results we’ve found for our families:

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Owen Tudor

The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, the Rt Hon William Hague, has made a curious speech today, which eschewed any concentration on what foreign policy is for, and concentrated solely on how the FCO is being managed.

He did mention the FCO’s narrowed down priorities – security, prosperity, and consular support to British nationals – but the rest of the speech was about how the organisation is being run. And I am worried that this is precisely the vision William Hague and the Government he belongs to have of foreign policy: it’s not about showing global leadership, it’s about keeping track of the paper clips.

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Owen Tudor

Reuters has today reported – and the TUC understands from its own sources – that the European Commission will be proposing a financial transactions tax at the European Finance Ministers’ meeting at the beginning of October. Details – such as the rate or rates, and the extent of transactions covered - are still unclear, and of course they are likely to change as the proposal is considered.

But any opposition from the UK is unlikely to derail the proposal, because if the UK refuses to agree to the tax at EU level, it will be applied in the Eurozone. If the proposal is tabled in early October, that will be followed a month later by a G20 discussion where the French Presidency and the EU itself are likely to push for something more global. The USA and several other G20 governments are unlikely to agree at that point, but a ‘coalition of the willing’ may well mean that other countries expand the tax’s coverage beyond the EU or Eurozone.

The Robin Hood Tax campaign in the UK – and similar campaigns around the world – will be stepping up public activism and political lobbying, such as the interactive MP-O-METER, over the next few months – starting with an exciting development next week. Watch this space…

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Anjum Klair

New TUC analysis of official statistics published today shows that it is harder to find a job in the Eastern half of the capital than the West.

The research ranks the City of London and each of the 32 London boroughs by the ratio of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants to every Jobcentre Plus job vacancy. In July 2011, across the capital the average ratio was nine job seekers for every available job, compared to a GB-wide figure of six per vacancy.

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