Consumer confidence barometer looks like recession
If today’s GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer measured air pressure we’d be getting ready for a hurricane. The overall measure has slipped from -30 to -32, down 13 points from October 2010’s -19. All the different elements are negative, all are down on last year and none are up on last month:
We’re getting so used to this sort of measure, I wasn’t going to mention it, but then I looked through the charts that accompany the press release. Does this look suggestive to you?
On both previous occasions – June 2008 and March 1990 – consumer confidence was entering periods of sustained weakness and the UK economy was going into recession. At this point in time, consumers’ outlook is becoming increasingly pessimistic about the UK’s general economic situation over the coming year. Additionally, the climate for major purchases has worsened, suggesting the government can’t rely on people spending their way out of the double-dip recession that is likely to be on the horizon.
The business world really doesn’t like negatives – when MDs start pointing out that their products suggest there’s a recession on the way it’s time to notice.