Duncan Weldon

It’s now been 16 months since George Osborne first set out his strategy to eliminate the structural deficit by the end of this Parliament at his first budget in June 2010.

Over those 16 months a lot has changed – the domestic economy has been much weaker than anticipated by the OBR whilst the international outlook has recently become much, much darker.

Since first revealing the OBR’s forecasts for growth George Osborne has been forced to announce downgrades to them twice – once in November last year and then again in March this year. In all likelihood he will be forced into announcing more wide ranging downgrades next month at his Autumn Statement.

The effect of this gradual downgrading of expectations – from the June 2010 forecast to the November 2010 forecast to the March 2011 and soon to the November 2011 forecast – is that it is easy to miss just how large these downgrades actually are.

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Steve Winyard

Having promised to protect the most vulnerable, the Government is pressing ahead with swingeing cuts to benefits and services vital to the lives of disabled people.

We held a large and vocal protest in May, including a lobby of Parliament, but Ministers did not listen.  They are still planning to take £2bn from disabled people receiving Disability Living Allowance (DLA). They are also cutting £1bn from contributory Employment and Support Allowance (ESA), ignoring the fact that disabled claimants have built up an entitlement to this benefit through their national insurance contributions.

Fortunately there is still a chance to halt some of the planned cuts. 

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Anjum Klair

TUC analysis published today ahead of the latest official unemployment figures on Wednesday, show that the lowest paid workers are bearing the brunt of the rising dole queues. According to the analysis those working in the lowest paid job groups have made up nearly half of the rise in dole queues since 2008. 

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Richard Exell

The latest issue of the Chartered Managers’ Institute’s Economic Outlook must make pretty grim reading for the government. Based on over 600 responses from their members, it shows that , in the words of Christopher Kinsella, the CMI’s Chief Executive, managers:

clearly perceive the British economy to be on the verge of a double-dip recession. The immediate outlook appears very bleak with unemployment rising, spending decreasing, continued lack of access to finance, and growth forecasts diminishing into the spectre of another recession.

Managers’ expectations for the longer-term are rather more hopeful, but there is clearly “a growing sense of impatience” with the government.

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Sharon Sukhram

To mark World Day for Decent Work on 7 October, the Playfair 2012 campaign is launching ‘Fair’s Fair – life and rights in the global sports industry’ an interactive, cross-curriculum resource for use with 9 to 14 year olds.

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Ben Moxham

Today workers from across the globe are marking the World Day for Decent Work with some 600 activities in 83 countries.

Launched by the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC) four years ago, the day aims to spread awareness about “Decent Work”. Instinctively we all know what that means: to have a job that allows you to live in dignity. Yet to deliver that requires governments, employers and trade unions working together to achieve the four bigger objectives of: (1) creating jobs; (2) guaranteeing rights at work; (3) extending social protection and (4) promoting social dialogue. That is what International Labour Organisation (ILO) means by “decent work”. But what do these four objectives mean practically? And why do we need to achieve them more than ever?

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Duncan Weldon

Earlier this week the IMF released its Regional Economic Outlook for Europe.

The press picked up on the fact that it was reiterating its call for some countries (including specifically the UK and Germany) to slow the pace of cuts if growth falters.

They made the same call in the most recent World Economic Outlook and Director Christine Lagarde urged policy makers not to ‘slam on the fiscal brakes’ in an FT article back in July.

Given that this isn’t a new call I thought the chart below was perhaps the most interesting bit of analysis in the report. And something I’ll be returning to in a future blog.

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Duncan Weldon

The Bank of England’s decision to recommence with quantitative easing (QE) should be welcomed with reservations. Another £75bn will be added to the stock of the Bank’s purchases. It’s a good sign that some policy makers are taking the rapid economic slowndown seriously.

As the Bank notes in its statement this slowdown can’t be blamed on global economic factors alone:

The squeeze on households’ real incomes and the fiscal consolidation are likely to continue to weigh on domestic spending, while the strains in bank funding markets may also inhibit the availability of credit to consumers and businesses

This is consistent with yesterday’s data which showed that household consumption has been falling for 4 quarters and that business investment (despite some improvement) remains well below its pre-recession peak.

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Owen Tudor

The news out of Greece gets worse and worse. As every cut demanded by the troika of the IMF, EU and European Central Bank bites, in an attempt to reduce public sector debt, the economy slides further into recession, and public sector debt goes up, rather than down. Greek trade unionists despair about the downward spiral that their economy is being forced into, and the attack on hard won workers’ rights that the troika is now demanding.

This weekend, yet another round of cuts was agreed by the Greek Cabinet. And yesterday the government formally acknowledged that the troika had requested the abolition of the National Collective Labour Agreement, which establishes universal minima for salaries and other terms and conditions. 

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Richard Exell

Never trust a politician observably descending to the demotic. Here’s a line from David Cameron’s speech today:

We’ve got to get some sense back into our labour market and get British people back into work. For years you’ve been conned by governments. To keep the unemployment figures down, they’ve parked as many people as possible on the sick. Two and a half million, to be exact. Not officially unemployed, but claiming welfare, no questions asked. Now we’re asking those questions. It turns out that of the 1.3 million people who have put in a claim for the new sickness benefit in recent years. One million are either able to work, or stopped their claim before their medical assessment had been completed.

“Conned by governments”, “on the sick”, “no questions asked” - I think Bullingdon Boy imagines he has the common touch. Connoisseurs of rhetoric will enjoy the first of these – isn’t it admirable of the Prime Minister to admit that it wasn’t just Labour governments that did this? Well, not really…

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