-
An important study from the LSE. Performance was strong 1997-2010 – continuing a trend that had begun under the Conservatives. GDP per capita grew fast by international standards; productivity growth second only to the US employment did well too. Distribution and business services were "much more important contributors to growth" than finance. Labour policies on education, innovation & competition contributed to growth. Argues that there is a substantial output gap, which means that there is room for fiscal expansion.
-
-
Richard Exell
Following Duncan’s example, I’d like to share some more charts that tell a story without too many accompanying words being needed. The World Top Incomes Database is a new (to me at any rate) resource that allows you to look at data on the incomes of the rich in 26 different countries. There are so many possibilities here, but a good starting point is to look at the share of total income going to various groups of the rich over time.
Let’s start off with the top half per cent of the income distribution:
-
Chris Baugh
Feed-in tariffs, introduced in April last year, have created 22,000 jobs in the solar industry, are helping to alleviate fuel poverty at a time of sharply escalating energy prices and are enabling the UK to take a real step towards a fossil-fuel free, decentralised energy future.
What is the response of the ‘greenest government ever’ to this encouraging green growth? To cut the tariff for solar photovoltaics (PV) by half with only six weeks’ notice, so threatening to kill off the industry. The economic argument that DECC ministers are using – that the budget for FITs set in last October’s comprehensive spending review has nearly run out due to high take up of the scheme – doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. DECC has admitted that it hasn’t asked the Treasury for more money for the scheme.
-
Owen Tudor
Europe has forced its way back onto the centre stage of political debate, whether it’s the eurozone crisis or the Conservative sceptics’ revolt in Parliament. Ministers are beginning to shift the blame for British economic woes from the previous Labour Government to the Eurozone, even though they are categorically wrong to do so, as my colleague Richard Exell has pointed out.
Across southern Europe, unions are at odds with Government austerity packages. In Greece, unions are out on the streets. Union demonstrations in Italy have been frequent this year. And the two confederations in Portugal – so often at odds – are uniting in a general strike on 24 November, just six days before British public sector unions strike over pensions.
-
-
Calling all geeks! The perfect excuse for wasting time – an amazing resource for data on the incomes of the rich in 26 countries. In some cases the data stretch back to the nineteenth century. Bound to become a major resource.
-
OECD monthly report shows slowdown across the developed world. In the UK we are now “below long term trend” and charts show downturn predating that in the OECD.
-
“Third Sector” reports that A4e – a Work Programme prime contractor – asked a volunteer centre for volunteers to help with CV workshops for unemployed people. They are reported to have said in an e-mail to the Volunteer Centre Oxfordshire: “What we are hoping for is some volunteers to help the trainer on the workshops, as some of our customers need more one-to-one support to complete their CVs. The ideal volunteer would possess very good IT skills, a lot of patience, and be able to work alongside the trainer so that the customer will have a completed CV.”
-
The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development warns that the labour market faces a “slow, painful, contraction”. Their latest Labour Market Outlook (based on a survey of HR professionals) finds that, while “the private sector is showing a strongly positive but steadily falling net employment balance (+20%)” the public sector has a “strongly negative net balance (–50%).“ Taken together, the net employment balance has fallen to -3%, from -1% last month, continuing a trend that has emerged in 2011. “Therefore, although there is nothing in the LMO survey findings to suggest that a marked fall in private sector employment is imminent, it is nonetheless likely that unemployment will continue to rise for the time being.”
-
-
Duncan Weldon
I’ve noted previously that it is very hard indeed to blame the UK’s slowdown over the past year on the Eurozone’s continuing crisis – our export performance has actually been pretty reasonable, what we’ve seen is a collapse in domestic demand as household income is squeezed and austerity begins to bite.
My colleague Richard has written about how bad the consumption numbers have actually been in recent quarters and a quick look at the most recent round up of independent forecasters views on the UK economy reveals that it is this that has been a the real driver of our stagnation. Back in March the OBR expected private consumption to contribute 0.6% to overall growth in 2011 (around one third of the total), whilst the median estimate of independent economists is now for it to subtract 1.0% from growth.
The squeeze on living standards has been larger than the OBR anticipated and households simply haven’t borrowed to plug the gap and maintain their spending.
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in the case of the chart below I’m inclined to agree.
-
Richard Exell
Is the crisis in the Eurozone responsible for the UK’s dismal economic growth? The latest government apologist to repeat this line was Mark Hogan, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury, arguing on the Today programme that the situation on the other side of the Channel “does cast a long shadow over our economy”.
This argument doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. One problem for the Government is that our stagnation began before the Eurozone crisis. Take two sets of data published today. First of all, look at the industrial production data, published by Eurostat:
-
Owen Tudor
The Secretary of State for International Development, Andrew Mitchell, gave what was billed as a major speech on the theme of “Beyond Aid” on Wednesday. Because there is so much else going on – and to be honest because there wasn’t much in it, it hasn’t attracted much comment, but it’s worth studying. Not for what it says, as Alison Evans of the Overseas Development Institute says in her blog, but for what’s missing. And although she cites some very specific omissions in his speech, I think there’s a much bigger one: people’s rights.
-
Owen Tudor
This week Nick Clegg fell into line yet again behind a right-wing economic policy, endorsing George Osborne’s rejection of a Robin Hood Tax. The Liberal Democrat manifesto in 2010, which put “fair taxes” at the top of four policies on the front page pledged to
work with other countries to establish new sources of development financing, including bringing forward urgent proposals for a financial transaction tax
Nick Clegg himself had gone on record in February, just two months earlier, saying of the Robin Hood Tax (six minutes in):
It’s a great idea in theory….We should push for it internationally. I’m glad to see it now finally being considered by IMF and other international bodies. But aiming for the best which would be a Tobin tax across the world shouldn’t prevent us doing something now here at home.
Now, instead, he is telling the EU to forget a Robin Hood Tax, echoing everything George Osborne has said. We would welcome him back in Sherwood Forest whenever he decides to abandon his new rich friends in the City and return to backing the poor.
-
-
New report concludes that the government's reforms of incapacity benefits will cut the number of claimants by nearly 1,000,000; over 800,000 of them existing claimants. 600,000 will be forced out of the benefit system entirely. Worst hit will be Scotland, Wales and the North of England; the South will hardly be affected.
-
A Chartered Management Institute survey of 2000 employees suggests that 75% of workers waste an average of 1.51 hours a week because of inefficient managers. The errors include unclear communication (33%); lack of support (33%); micro-management (26%); and lack of direction (25%).
-
