Web links for 28th November 2011
In the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey 26% of retailers saw the volume of sales rise in the year to November, & 44% saw a fall. This is the fastest decline in sales since March 2009.The volume of orders with suppliers fell at the fastest rate since March 2009; worryingly, orders are expected to fall again next month. Employment in the sector fell at the fastest rate since November 2009: 13% of retailers increasedemployment, while 40% cut it. Wholesalers saw falling sales volumes this month and expect more of the same next month.
The CBI’s quarterly service industry survey shows “continuing decline in business volume and value ” with consumer services falling at the fastest rate since May 2009 by volume, Feb 2009 by value. Businesses expect further declines in the next quarter. Employment fell 6% and is expected to more strongly in the next quarter – the weakest expected employment change since Feb 2010.
The BCC Quarterly Economic Forecast predicts that growth will be “minimal” until the middle of next year and then slow until the second half of 2013.These are substantial downgrades from previous BCC forecasts and the organisations also expects the rate of growth of consumer spending to be “consistently slower than GDP growth.” Unemployment is forecast to reach 2.77 million by the last quarter of next year, with youth unemployment remaining over 1 million.