From the TUC

STOP PRESS: OECD now say 2018 UK real wage decline will be joint worst of all advanced economies

07 Jun 2017, by in Economics

In today’s Economic Outlook the OECD show UK real wages falling by 1.1% in 2018, with nominal earnings growth of 1.5% outstripped by inflation of 2.7%.

This is a big change of view on nominal earnings, which were previously expected to rise by 2.5% (in their March interim forecast). This revision must reflect earnings outcomes coming in significantly weaker than expected. The latest inflation forecast is actually down a little on the March forecast of 2.9%.

The decline means that the UK real wage performance in 2018 will be equal worst in the OECD, with Finland (UK is marginally worse on an unrounded basis). Mexico and Italy are the only other counties expected to experience declines. (Details of calculations are in the notes to editors of the TUC press release – here.)

Across all OECD countries, the average real wage increase is expected to be (plus) 1.1%.

The OECD is clear that we need more public investment to help turn this around – see post here on their assessment of the UK.

One Response to STOP PRESS: OECD now say 2018 UK real wage decline will be joint worst of all advanced economies

  1. Rising inflation is contributing to falling wages, and the pay squeeze isn't set to get better
    Jun 13th 2017, 1:51 pm

    […] isn’t set to get better. The OECD has forecasted that UK real wages will fall by 1.1% in 2018. This is the joint worst across the OECD countries, and makes the UK one of only four countries […]