From the TUC

Geoff Tily's Articles

‘Economists for free trade’ contradicted by today’s GDP data

24 Aug 2017, by in Economics

In a provocative piece this week (‘From Project Fear to Project Prosperity’), Professor Patrick Minford made a number of claims about the post-referendum economy. Apparently “the devaluation brought on by Brexit is acting as a powerful stimulus to the economy …”. Here’s how: … switching demand away from consumers to net exports and business investment,…




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Demand needs to rise before rates do

03 Aug 2017, by in Economics

With the economy showing increased signs of weakness, it is welcome that that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted today to keep interest rates on hold. More surprising perhaps has been the recent positioning of MPC members that has fostered speculation that a rate rise was more likely. At one level this is understandable. With…




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Why multipliers matter

24 Jul 2017, by in Economics

“Nothing in economics is more potent than a simple idea whose time has come”, Gavyn Davies, October 21st 2012 The week before last, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published a new assessment of ‘fiscal risks’ to the UK. Reporting on threats to the public finances, they warned against new spending commitments: “… new unfunded…




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Can increased public spending pay for itself?

07 Jul 2017, by in Economics

Since the election, we’ve seen several proclamations of the ‘end of austerity’. As TUC post election poll (among others) has showed, there is now a clear majority in favour of ‘Maintaining decent public services even if that means my taxes go up’. This is a far cry from some of the rhetoric during the election…




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Bank warns consumer credit is a “pocket of risk that warrants vigilance”

28 Jun 2017, by in Economics

Tackling the symptoms of the consumer credit boom without addressing the causes risks exacerbating the living standards crisis. Consumer credit was prominent in the yesterday’s assessment of financial stability by the Bank of England. Up front a chart shows the accelerating growth in various measures of credit (red yellow green) against slowing growth in nominal…




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