From the TUC

Geoff Tily's Articles

What recovery? only one in seven feel anything

06 Nov 2014, by in Economics

The pie chart says it all. In spite of the relentless rhetoric from the government, only one in seven or 14 per cent of British adults actually feel any recovery. The data are from a populus survey conducted for the Financial Times and reported fully in the FT this morning; I report it in the…




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As good as it gets?

28 Oct 2014, by in Economics

Plainly it is important not to overdo a slowdown in GDP growth to 0.7 per cent from 0.9 per cent. But as one of a number of indicators that have come off the boil, and given an apparent and wider shift of sentiment in markets, the sum of the parts is of interest. If momentum…




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Living standards crisis derails deficit reduction

16 Oct 2014, by in Economics

The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) today reminded us of the extent of the Coalition’s failure to reduce the deficit in recent years. Public sector net borrowing in 2013-14 was originally expected to be £60 billion; the outturn for borrowing was £108 billion (on a comparable basis). This amounts to a shortfall of nearly £50…




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New calls to reverse austerity on Newsnight

15 Oct 2014, by in Economics

On Newsnight last night (14 October), an editor on The Economist and a senior economist joined the OECD and IMF challenging austerity policies. Below I have transcribed some of the discussion on the potentially deflationary conditions in the world economy between Evan Davies (ED), Zanny Minton Beddoes (ZMB), the business affairs editor of The Economist,…




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Deflation watch

14 Oct 2014, by in Economics

The Chancellor today described the CPI inflation figure of 1.2% as a ‘double dose of good news’, apparently easing cost-of-living pressures and also meaning gains for pensioners through the ‘triple lock’. Sticking to the politics, he avoided the economics of inflation repeatedly surprising on the downside and yet remaining above earnings growth.




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A real earnings decline with no precedent

13 Oct 2014, by in Economics

In 2014, UK workers confront the seventh consecutive year of falling real earnings, a situation that has no historical precedent since Victorian times, when records become available. The total decline in real earnings from 2007 to 2014 is estimated at 8 per cent, on the basis of calendar year figures. In terms of scale or…




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