RSS feed Nicola Smith's Archive — Page 2

Nicola Smith

Nicola Smith

I’m Head of the Economic and Social Affairs Department at the TUC. I also represent the TUC on the Social Security Advisory Committee. My posts may therefore range from the environment to the welfare state via macro-economic policy but will inevitably provide more detail in some areas than others. In my previous roles I specialised in labour market policy and coordinated the work of the Commission on Vulnerable Employment (CoVE). Before joining the TUC I worked in research and policy roles for Barnardo’s, the Children and Young People’s Unit at the old DfES and the Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion.

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    The changes the Chancellor has announced in the basis for tax credit and benefit uprating will have significant implications for families – our analysis shows that the cumulative impacts of policies announced over the parliament will mean that some households are over £2,800 a year worse off as a result of tax credit changes alone.

    Interesting then to consider what’s happening to the main corporation tax rate – set to fall again in April 2014. By 2017/18 this measure is set to cost us just over £1 billion a year – 40% of the £2.5 billion generated by holding down support for working age households.

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    The Chancellor has already frozen Child Benefit for three years. But today we heard that the real terms value of this important family benefit will be cut even further as a result of the Chancellor’s plans to limit uprating to 1% a year, regardless of the inflation rate.

    What does this mean in practice? 

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    The Chancellor’s employment rights for shares proposals have rightly been criticised for permitting employees to trade essential key employment rights for potentially worthless shares, undermining both employment protection and the credibility of existing employee share ownership schemes (and the TUC’s comprehensive response makes clear the multiple objectives there are to these ill thought through plans).

    But to date the tax implications of the policy have been less well discussed – although emerging evidence suggests they may be significant. There are two key new loopholes that these changes risk opening up.

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Yesterday’s FT announced (£) that the ‘BoE fears zombie companies haunt the road to recovery’, claiming that ‘the idea that zombie households, companies and banks are holding back the recovery will gain further weight in the quarterly inflation report today when the central bank will present research showing most productivity weakness is presented in smaller companies’. The analysis, based on a preview of yesterday’s Inflation Report, maintains that a large number of British businesses are struggling under a debt burden which is holding back investment decisions and making businesses highly susceptible to insolvency as soon as interest rates start to rise. The worry is that this means we are stuck with an underlying stock of unproductive companies which should have gone bust during the recession, but have been supported to survive by low interest rates. Proponents of this thesis are concerned that these businesses will hold back the recovery as they fail, and that in the mean time they are sucking resources away from new start ups that could drive strong growth.

    But is the outlook really this bleak? Have we lost far more capacity than anyone previously imagined? And do the data in the Inflation Report actually support this thesis?

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Living Wage week was a great success in drawing attention to the large number of low paid workers across the UK, and the importance of finding new ways to boost incomes above the vital pay floor set by the NMW. With over 40,000 workers now benefitting from the work of the Living Wage campaign success has been significant. With real wages continuing to fall our stagnating economy means that even as the jobs figures improve the risk of a low pay, low productivity recovery remains real – if we can’t secure strong growth (and only time will tell whether we can – under current management it doesn’t look likely) then low incomes are set to remain a significant issue for millions of households for years to come.

    While it’s far better for people to be in work than out of it, a life on persistently low income is tough, and (particularly when work is insecure) can lead to outcomes that in the long-term are little better than for those who are long-term unemployed. And poverty is an economic as well as a social problem. If incomes aren’t rising, consumer spending remains depressed and we risk an over reliance upon debt – which, as recent events show, can create significant risks for both individuals and the wider economy.

    So can the Living Wage alone can solve this problem – of course the answer is that it can’t (and of course no one is arguing that it is). So while the TUC is in full support of the Living Wage campaign, it’s also worth thinking about the wider change we need to boost living standards for low and middle income families.

    Continue Reading →

  • Economics

    Is the deficit down by a quarter?

    8th October 2012 — Filed under: Economics

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Pledge cards at today’s Conservative conference have been proudly proclaiming that the deficit is down by a quarter. Is it? The reality is not that simple. 

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    The recent Juncture article from Gavin Kelly and Nick Pearce makes the vital argument that we need:

    A more fundamental thinking of social democratic political economy than has yet been undertaken in the UK, and with it a new configuration of priorities. Our goal must be a more resilient and stable British capitalism, with more productive, regionally balanced investment, dynamic markets, and demand generated from higher productivity and rising real wages, rather than speculative bubbles, rent seeking and debt-finances increases in living standards.

    Such a vision has long been TUC ambition. In a speech at Liverpool University last year Brendan set out his view that:

    One thing’s for sure: we cannot continue as we are. The current model of capitalism – deregulated, unequal, unstable – is facing a crisis of legitimacy…Unless we get to grips with some of the root causes of the current turmoil – debt-fuelled growth; stagnant wages for the majority; financial speculation – then who knows what the future may hold. These really are profoundly volatile and turbulent times. But lofty ambitions do not generate easy policy answers.

    The analysis is not so very different, even if there are variations in tone.  And Brendan’s final observation remains pertinent – answers are very far from easy.

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Earlier this year the Deputy Prime Minister was keen to sing the praises of the Youth Contract, in particular the 160,000 ‘wage incentives’ which were intended to “reduce the cost to employers of taking on a young person from the Work Programme”. The incentive payment of £2,275 for each young person recruited is intended to cover the employer’s National Insurance contributions for the first six months of young people’s employment. In most parts of the country these ‘incentives’ apply when employers take on young people who have been unemployed for nine months, although employers hiring young people who have been out of work for six months are eligible in the most deprived parts of the UK. As the most significant part of the Government’s package the programme aims to ‘provide hope‘ to unemployed young people.

    But despite the scheme starting close to six months ago there are still no data available on take up – suggesting that not as much hope is being provided as was initially  anticipated.

    Continue Reading →

  • Economics

    New business bank a ‘misnomer’

    4th September 2012 — Filed under: Economics

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    While the case for the introduction of a British investment bank is compelling, the Chancellor’s planned ‘small business bank’ has been met with scepticism from business leaders. Citi economist Michael Saunders sums it up best, suggesting it had been a “misnomer” to call the Government’s plan a bank, and noting that:

    This new ‘business bank’ will not take deposits or raise money in wholesale markets, nor will it have any extra government funding, nor will it take significant new credit risk, and nor will it have any branches…as things stand, we doubt this new plan will add much to other government schemes in terms of improving credit availability”.

    Across the world state investment banks play a vital role in spurring on vital investment and supporting innvoation. Instead of more gimmicks, the UK economy needs one too. 

    Continue Reading →

  • Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    The jobs market continues to confound – with employment rising while GDP falls. But does part of the answer lie with rising self-employment rates?

    Continue Reading →