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Nicola Smith

Nicola Smith

I’m Head of the Economic and Social Affairs Department at the TUC. I also represent the TUC on the Social Security Advisory Committee. My posts may therefore range from the environment to the welfare state via macro-economic policy but will inevitably provide more detail in some areas than others. In my previous roles I specialised in labour market policy and coordinated the work of the Commission on Vulnerable Employment (CoVE). Before joining the TUC I worked in research and policy roles for Barnardo’s, the Children and Young People’s Unit at the old DfES and the Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion.

  • Labour market

    PM is wrong: More public sector jobs have been lost than have been created in the private sector

    14th December 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Today at PMQs the Prime Minister said that the private sector had created 581,000 jobs since the coalition came to power, with 336,000 being lost in the public sector over the same period.

    It is true that between Jan-March 2010 and July-September 2011 (the figures released today) private sector employment levels role by 581,000. But 54% of the rise (314,000 jobs) took place between Jan-March 2010 and April – June 2010, and the election was in May. It is fair to assume that at least a third of the change in private sector job levels took place in April 2010, and given the Government wasn’t formed until the 12th of May, it’s hard to see how the Prime Minister can take responsibility for jobs change over that month, before any of his policies had been agreed.

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  • Economics

    OBR analysis suggests greater scope to stimulate the economy now

    14th December 2011 — Filed under: Economics

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    As the economy continues to slow, the labour market’s performence worsens and the risks of a further recession increase, the Chancellor’s key argument against further stimulus is that a departure from his auserity plan would lead the costs of Government borrowing to rise. His assessment is that more spending now would mean that the interest rates we have to pay on our increasing debt burden would rocket, costing us more to borrow, making it harder to refinance the national debt, forcing interest rates to rise for ordinary businesses and households and concequently exacerbating the living standards squeeze.

    This assessment has always been questionable. The costs of Government borrowing could be affected as much by the Eurozone crisis and the poor availability of investment opportunities elsewhere in the UK’s private sector (as a result of poor growth expecatations in the future) as by a bond market endorsement of the Chancellor’s austerity plan. And at any rate poor UK growth is looking increasingly likely, as Duncan has set out, to unsettle the ratings agencies. But presume for a second that a significant government stimulus did lead to a small increase in the rates we pay for our debt, what do the OBR say would happen?

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  • Labour market

    Government needs to take responsibility for rising unemployment

    17th November 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    I have a blog post up at the Huffington Post questioning the Government’s response to rising unemployment.

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  • Labour market

    Chris Grayling tells unemployed people it’s a ‘great time’ to apply for a job

    29th October 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    In response to the news that 80,000 people have applied for 18,000 temporary Christmas jobs at Royal Mail Chris Grayling MP (Minister for Employment) has helpfully told unemployed people that:

    Now is a great time to apply for one of the tens of thousands of Christmas jobs which are being advertised. Temporary work gives you an idea of the kind of career you might want, looks good on your CV and also gives you something to talk about in job interviews. It can even lead to more permanent employment.

    These comments appear to indicate that Chris Grayling thinks many unemployed people might hesistate to apply for jobs, or are not aware that being in work looks good on their CV. But he needn’t have worried – miraculously 80,000 people had already taken action before he dispensed his advice. It’s therefore unfortunate that 62,000 of them (77%) will find they are unsuccessful.

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  • Economics

    What impacts are spending cuts having for growth?

    25th October 2011 — Filed under: Economics

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    It’s no secret that the recovery is on the rocks. Growth of 0.1 per cent over nine months and the highest unemployment levels in 17 years is nothing to shout home about, and with global demand slowing sharply and the crisis in the Eurozone still unresolved the future direction of the UK economy is looking increasingly uncertain. With the UK recovery still one of the weakest in the developed world (as well as being the slowest on record) we are still only 2.8 percentage points off our recessionary slump.

    Given this challenging outlook it is perhaps no surprise that debate about the causes of our economic stagnation is raging. While the Government maintains that the Eurozone is to blame the evidence is fairly convincing that our problems significantly pre-date its difficulties.  But the argument doesn’t stop there – the second question is whether the Government’s spending cuts can legitimately be blamed for our current mess.

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  • Labour market

    Is David Cameron right to claim that women’s employment rates are higher than May 2010?

    12th October 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Today at PMQ’s David Cameron claimed that there were more women in work now than ‘at the time of the election’. This is correct – but also deeply misleading. The facts are that between April – June 2010 and June – August 2011:

    • The number of women aged 16 and over in the population rose by 194,000 from 25,494,000 to 25,688,000
    • The number of women aged 16 and over in work rose by 25,000 from 13,489,000 to 13,523,00
    • The working age female employment rate (16-64) fell by 0.1 per cent from 65.5 to 65.4
    • The number of women aged 16 and over unemployed rose by 77,000 from 992,000 to 1,069,000 – the highest level since 1988
    • The unemployment rate for women aged 16 and over rose by 0.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent to 7.3 per cent – the highest rate since 1994
    • The number of women in part-time work who want a full-time job rose by 99,000.

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  • Labour market

    Is rising unemployment a result of the ‘international economic crisis’?

    12th October 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Faced with the highest level of unemployment for 17 years Chris Grayling has been touring the studios to set out his explanation for this growing social and economic disaster, explaining that:

    It is clear that we are seeing the effect of the international economic crisis on the UK labour market.

    The premise is presumably that levels of  job creation and job loss in the UK are being driven by falls in confidence resulting from the ongoing  Eurozone crisis and slowing global demand. This is simply incorrect. Today’s figures relate to June, July and August 2011. This is a period that followed nine months of economic stagnation and the start of the sharpest cuts in public spending in decades. Unemployment is a lagging indicator – the data are now reflecting the consequences of our stagnant and depressed economy.

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  • Society & Welfare

    Is the Government right to question the IFS’s ‘static modelling’?

    11th October 2011 — Filed under: Society & Welfare

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    The Government’s rebuttal to today’s damning IFS report has been to claim:

    The IFS acknowledge that Universal Credit will substantially reduce child poverty. It will make work pay for the first time, tackling in-work poverty and lift over one million people, including 450,000 children, out of poverty. Our wide-ranging reforms will have a dynamic impact on some of the poorest families, encouraging people into work, many for the first time, and improving the life chances of children at an early age.

    They are partly right. The IFS do acknowledege Universal Credit (UC) will have some positive concequences. But the press release accompanying their report is titled ‘Universal Credit not enough to prevent a decade of rising poverty’ – suggesting they question its overall impact.

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  • Labour market

    Are unemployed people too lazy to look for work?

    29th September 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    Policy Exchange have recently taken to making a widely reported claim that “recent research has suggested that Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) claimants spend as little as eight minutes a day searching for work.” But is it true? 

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  • Labour market

    Why women’s unemployment rates are set to rise

    28th September 2011 — Filed under: Labour market

    Nicola Smith Nicola Smith

    New TUC analysis (admittedly published several weeks ago – but time has been tight!) shows that women are set for a tough time in the labour market. Across the UK more women than men work in the public sector, and it turns out that 34% of women who are employed (around 4,650,000 women) are in public sector jobs compared to 17% of employed men (around 2,600,000)*. In some regions female unemployment is even more concentrated in public sector employment: 42% of employed women in Northern Ireland, 37% in the North West and 36% in Yorkshire are in public sector jobs. Given 110,000 public sector jobs were lost in the second quarter (over five times more than the OBR forecast anticipated would be lost over the entire financial year) if job losses continue at even half this rate women are set to take a considerable hit.

    But our key finding is that over the last decade the public sector has been responsible for the vast majority of net female jobs growth (84%), whereas for men it has only created 39% of net new jobs. Not only do women look set to lose a lot of work, but it’s far from clear where they will find new jobs.

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