Richard Exell
Today’s summary of the reports from the Bank of England’s agents says that private sector employment likely to be “broadly unchanged” for the next six months. We know that more public sector job losses are coming, so overall unem-ployment is very likely going to start rising again.
Each month, the Bank of England publishes a summary of the reports on business conditions from their agents in the regions and nations of the UK (more on the agents here). There are dozens of business and economic surveys these days, but this is one of just two or three that cannot be ignored because they tend to be proved right. (Or, as the Bank puts it, they often “have a high correlation with subsequently published ONS data”.)
As is often the case, today’s Agents’ Summary is a bit of a mixed bag, but some of the measures I pay particular attention to look pretty dull. One is investment intentions (planned and possible spending over the next 12 months) which are important because investment is such a key influence on the economic cycle. Today’s report shows that the agents expect investment only to grow slowly, and it looks as though the improvement earlier in the year may have been cut off:
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