At the heart of George Osborne’s economic policy is a deeply perverse belief that if he cuts public spending and services people’s confidence will increase because they will think that they will have more money to spend themselves as a result and so there will be economic expansion as they spend more in anticipation of this windfall. This is called expansionary fiscal contraction. There is no evidence to support it: it’s very obviously not working. It has rightly attracted opprobrium, including from Paul Krugman.
This perverse, and failing, policy is matched by another perverse policy which will also fail, but which has not as yet had time to evidence that fact. This is the policy of cutting corporation tax in the belief that this will increase both growth and employment, which is central to Osborne’s policy of cutting the mainstream corporation tax rate from 28%, which it inherited from Labour, to 23% over a period of four years.
It is argued by many, including academics and the OECD that there is, indeed, a relationship between growth, employment, and low corporation tax rates. However, new research that I’ve undertaken for the TUC, published today, leads me to seriously doubt this.
