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Tim Page

Tim Page

I’m a Senior Policy Officer at the TUC, responsible for economic and industrial policy. I also cover science policy, public procurement and high performance workplaces. I started my union at the Amalgamated Engineering Union, which is now part of Unite. I also did a spell at the House of Commons, working for the MPs Ann Clwyd and Ian McCartney. I was part of the team that put together the policy proposals which became the National Minimum Wage.

One of my major tasks at the TUC is editing our Budget Submission, which is sent to the Chancellor of the Exchequer each year. It sets out our analysis of the state of the economy and recommends policies which, we believe, will improve the economic and social fabric of Britain. Being the TUC Budget Submission, it is especially concerned with these issues from the perspective of people at work. When I’m not working, I enjoy sports, especially football (watching) and skiing (taking part). I’m also learning to speak Italian.

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    Faisal Islam, Economics Editor of Channel 4 News, has been tweeting. Nothing strange about that, I hear you cry! But he has been tweeting about the German economy and has mentioned the TUC’s ‘German Lessons’ report. Having not mastered the art of Twitter yet, I’ll blog a short response.

    Specifically, three hours ago, Faisal tweeted:

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    On Monday, Pat McFadden, MP for Wolverhampton South East, former Minister at the Department for Business and one-time member of Tony Blair’s Policy Unit, published a paper entitled ‘Making things: a reassessment of British manufacturing’. This is the first chance I’ve had to blog about it. It contains a lot of evidence from Pat’s own constituency, which was formerly a part of the UK’s manufacturing heartland. And, in the main, I think it is a a good report.

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    Perhaps this morning’s Guardian should have been subtitled ‘the growth edition’. It’s front page greets readers with the headline, ‘Boost growth now or face a global crisis, Obama tells EU’. From a domestic perspective, the TUC has been arguing for months that austerity is the cure that is killing the patient and with the UK back in recession, our worst fears are being realised. The European economy is suffering a similar fate, with Greece, and perhaps increasingly Spain and Italy, under heavy pressure to make excessive cuts, which can only result in negative economic growth and higher unemployment. Thank heaven that at least the ‘Merkozy’ consensus at the heart of Europe has now been broken. The Guardian reports that Barack Obama, with one eye on his own re-election campaign, will welcome the pressure for more expansionary policies from the new French President, Francois Hollande, as Obama highlights the dangers to the world economy of  excessive austerity.

    Then, in the ‘Comment and Debate’ section of the Guardian, the always-impressive Mariana Mazzucato debunks the argument that growth can be brought about by “structural reforms”, such as cutting red tape or making it easer to hire and fire workers. Mariana points out that those companies which invest in new technology, human capital and R&D, and are located in countries where public spending in these areas is high, are able to produce more competitive and better value products. She also highlights that Scandinavia, with its large welfare state and stringent labour laws, has been crisis-resilient because it invests in innovation. Mariana laments the irony that German pressure for austerity, which prevents weaker eurozone nations from investing, stops those nations from doing the very things, like supporting R&D, vocational training and “greening” the economy, that have made Germany so successful.

    A head of steam is developing, against austerity and in favour of growth, and it couldn’t have come too soon. The TUC will be debating this issue at our conference, ‘After Austerity, on 26th June and we are delighted that Mariana Mazzucato, along with such speakers as Dean Baker, Ha-Joon Chang, Robert Skidelsky and our own Brendan Barber, will be contributing. Register here and join the debate 

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    I have a post on the London School of Economics European Politics and Policy blog today, discussing industrial policy in the light of the Budget. If you are interested, you can read it here.

     

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    Listening to the Budget speech today, I was struck by the following passage:

    “In time, my Rt Hon Friend the Education Secretary’s school reforms will do more to improve the long-term economic performance of our country than any Budget measure every will. But we’ve got to help the young adults who’ve already been let down by the school system. We’re offering a record number of apprenticeships and our Youth Contract comes into force next month.”

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    We know – because the leaked letter from Business Secretary Vince Cable to the Prime Minister  told us so – that there is concern at senior levels of Government about the lack of “a compelling vision of where the country is heading”. Vince Cable, quite rightly, told the Prime Minister that “we can be more strategic, and the economic backdrop will increase demands that we are ambitious”. Vince also told the PM, again correctly, that “market forces are insufficient for creating the long term industrial capabilities we need.”

    As the Chancellor began his Budget speech today, I wondered if Vince’s message had got through. Early in his speech, George Osborne told the House of Commons:

    “We earn our way in the world if we stop being afraid to identify Britain’s strengths and reinforce them, backing industries, like aerospace, energy and pharmaceuticals, creative media and science. A deliberate strategy to create a more balanced national economy, where financial services are strong, but they are not the only string to our bow.”

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    Sir Howard Davies, formerly of CBI and FSA fame, has an interesting comment piece in today’s FT. As is always the case with Davies, there are bits I like and bits I don’t, but I was struck by the following passage:

    “The chancellor is lucky, too, in that the industrial policy ideas emerging from the camp of Vince Cable, the Lib Dem Business Secretary, have so little substance. The leaked letter in which he complained of the lack of a growth strategy did not propose one, or present any substantial policy challenge to the Treasury. Previous business secretaries have been far more ingenious and troublesome. So the backdrop against which Mr Osborne will open his red box could be a lot worse.”

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    Next week’s Budget must tackle the jobs and growth crisis facing the UK. So said the TUC in our Budget Submission, which has been submitted to the Chancellor, George Osborne, and was published earlier this week.

    The TUC’s submission describes the current state of the economy in some detail.  Domestic demand (consumer, business and government spending) fell in 2011, contrary to government expectations. Inflation was higher than expected, while wage growth was lower, squeezing household incomes. The consequent fall in economic activity explains flat-lining economic growth. Add to this the fact that over one million more people are now unemployed compared to at the start of the recession and the challenge is there for all to see.

    So what should the Chancellor do? 

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    Today’s Parliamentary event to discuss the TUC’s ‘German Lessons’ report was fascinating, challenging and, at times, provocative - just how a good debate should be! There was a tremendous amount of goodwill in the room, as politicians, policy specialists, trade unionists and industry representatives all sought an active industrial strategy and were keen to learn from the German experience.

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    As a panellist at this morning’s IPPR/NEF/Resolution Foundation conference, ‘Developing an industrial strategy for the UK’, I was a man on a mission. I drafted my contribution in a two hour window last week and I planned to talk about the TUC’s ‘German Lessons’ report, which I’ve blogged on before. I could only make three points in my five minute slot and I thought my most controversial one would be that Germany seeks excellence in its areas of strength, but it doesn’t seek to be strong everywhere. Instead, Germany seeks success in key industrial sectors and recognises that the choice of those sectors is partly a political choice.

    Understanding the horror – that’s probably not too strong a word – that is generally felt at the idea of UK politicians making such choices, my typewritten remarks contained a fair degree of crossings out and scribbles in the margin, as I wrestled with how to say this delicately. In fact, Vince Cable, the Business Secretary and the keynote opening speaker, helped me out. Vince has been grappling with the issue of industrial strategy in recent months (and as Unite’s Tony Burke and I blogged last week, I think progress is being made). In his remarks, Vince said:

    “Government’s have been scared off by fear of being accused of ‘picking winners’. That is a legitimate concern. But the Government also makes choices every single day that affect individual sectors. And there is a case for being more explicit about the choices we are making and linking them to a clearly articulated economic strategy.”

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