Economics

  • Craig Berry Craig Berry

    Andrew Bailey, who will soon become chief regulator of the financial services industry, has called for an end to free banking. The banks themselves have long been divided on this issue: on the one hand, they can sniff a brand new revenue stream from monthly current account charges, but on the other, they know that unless all providers introduced charges at exactly the same time (which is highly unlikely) there would be an enormous first-mover disadvantage as customers switch to accounts that are still offered for free.

    If anyone can be expected to know the price of things, it is of course Andrew Bailey. You may recognise him from your wallet or purse – as the Bank of England’s Chief Cashier, his signature is on all of our banknotes. But Bailey’s advocacy of fee-charging accounts seems to be based on some rather dubious logic. And it seems certain that any such move would reverse some of the successes of the financial inclusion agenda in recent years.

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  • Tim Page Tim Page

    Faisal Islam, Economics Editor of Channel 4 News, has been tweeting. Nothing strange about that, I hear you cry! But he has been tweeting about the German economy and has mentioned the TUC’s ‘German Lessons’ report. Having not mastered the art of Twitter yet, I’ll blog a short response.

    Specifically, three hours ago, Faisal tweeted:

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  • Richard Exell Richard Exell

    At Prime Minister’s Questions today (watch here from about 19 minutes in)  Mr Cameron repeated his claim that his government has created 600,000 net new private sector jobs. (Hat-tip: @D_Blanchflower)

    As Fact Check has noted, this is a claim the Prime Minister likes to repeat, even though it has been disproved a number of times; today’s figure simply updates similar data he quoted last year. This is surprising, because a closer look at the relevant statistics reveals a story that is less flattering to the government.

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  • Richard Exell Richard Exell

    Today’s summary of the reports from the Bank of England’s agents says that private sector employment likely to be “broadly unchanged” for the next six months. We know that more public sector job losses are coming, so overall unem-ployment is very likely going to start rising again.

    Each month, the Bank of England publishes a summary of the reports on business conditions from their agents in the regions and nations of the UK (more on the agents here). There are dozens of business and economic surveys these days, but this is one of just two or three that cannot be ignored because they tend to be proved right. (Or, as the Bank puts it, they often “have a high correlation with subsequently published ONS data”.)

    As is often the case, today’s Agents’ Summary  is a bit of a mixed bag, but some of the measures I pay particular attention to look pretty dull. One is investment intentions (planned and possible spending over the next 12 months) which are important because investment is such a key influence on the economic cycle. Today’s report shows that the agents expect investment only to grow slowly, and it looks as though the improvement earlier in the year may have been cut off:

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  • Tim Page Tim Page

    On Monday, Pat McFadden, MP for Wolverhampton South East, former Minister at the Department for Business and one-time member of Tony Blair’s Policy Unit, published a paper entitled ‘Making things: a reassessment of British manufacturing’. This is the first chance I’ve had to blog about it. It contains a lot of evidence from Pat’s own constituency, which was formerly a part of the UK’s manufacturing heartland. And, in the main, I think it is a a good report.

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  • Duncan Weldon Duncan Weldon

    I’m still working my way through the IMF’s thoughts on the UK economy. But so far I’m inclined to agree with Larry Elliot’s take at the Guardian:

    The IMF says plan B should involve the Bank of England cutting interest rates from their already record-low level of 0.5% and chucking some more newly minted money at the economy through the process known as quantitative easing. Only if that fails to do the trick does the Fund think the chancellor should resort to fiscal policy – decisions affecting tax and spending – to boost demand. As far as the Fund is concerned, deliberately increasing borrowing in an attempt to stimulate demand is plan C not plan B.

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  • Duncan Weldon Duncan Weldon

    Today’s inflation figures brought another welcome fall in the pace of price increases. But as earnings growth continues to slow, lower inflation is not feeding through into rising real wages.

    As previously noted, the TUC has started tracking the different rates of inflation faced by the poorest 10% of households and the richest 10%. (The post linked to explains the methodology).

    As can be seen in the chart below, the poorest 10% have faced higher inflation than the richest since August 2011. This is because they spend a greater proportion of their income on essentials such as food and utility bills, items where prices have been rising faster.

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  • Tim Page Tim Page

    Perhaps this morning’s Guardian should have been subtitled ‘the growth edition’. It’s front page greets readers with the headline, ‘Boost growth now or face a global crisis, Obama tells EU’. From a domestic perspective, the TUC has been arguing for months that austerity is the cure that is killing the patient and with the UK back in recession, our worst fears are being realised. The European economy is suffering a similar fate, with Greece, and perhaps increasingly Spain and Italy, under heavy pressure to make excessive cuts, which can only result in negative economic growth and higher unemployment. Thank heaven that at least the ‘Merkozy’ consensus at the heart of Europe has now been broken. The Guardian reports that Barack Obama, with one eye on his own re-election campaign, will welcome the pressure for more expansionary policies from the new French President, Francois Hollande, as Obama highlights the dangers to the world economy of  excessive austerity.

    Then, in the ‘Comment and Debate’ section of the Guardian, the always-impressive Mariana Mazzucato debunks the argument that growth can be brought about by “structural reforms”, such as cutting red tape or making it easer to hire and fire workers. Mariana points out that those companies which invest in new technology, human capital and R&D, and are located in countries where public spending in these areas is high, are able to produce more competitive and better value products. She also highlights that Scandinavia, with its large welfare state and stringent labour laws, has been crisis-resilient because it invests in innovation. Mariana laments the irony that German pressure for austerity, which prevents weaker eurozone nations from investing, stops those nations from doing the very things, like supporting R&D, vocational training and “greening” the economy, that have made Germany so successful.

    A head of steam is developing, against austerity and in favour of growth, and it couldn’t have come too soon. The TUC will be debating this issue at our conference, ‘After Austerity, on 26th June and we are delighted that Mariana Mazzucato, along with such speakers as Dean Baker, Ha-Joon Chang, Robert Skidelsky and our own Brendan Barber, will be contributing. Register here and join the debate 

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  • Philip Pearson Philip Pearson

    Lord Heseltine thunders at the FT today for an “extremely misleading” report that the Regional Growth Fund will create just 41,000 jobs, costing up to £200,000 to create a single post. Not so, says Lord Heseltine, who chairs the RGF advisory panel. The fund “will create 328,000 jobs … As I made clear to your reporter, I do not accept the figure of 41,000 jobs, which gives a misleading impression of the impact of the fund.” So who is right? The FT headlined a review last Friday by the National Audit Office of the government’s flagship to create private sector jobs where public sector job losses would cut deepest.  The NAO found that the 219 successful projects would create 117,000 full time equivalent jobs. Of these, 41,000 are additional full-time equivalent private sector jobs. The average cost if £33,000 per job, with a tenth of projects exceeding £106,000 per job.

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  • Economics

    The Unequal Impact of Inflation

    11th May 2012 — Filed under: Economics

    Duncan Weldon Duncan Weldon

    Research we’ve published today shows that over the past year high inflation has hit the poorest much harder than the high earners.

    A variety of factors both domestic (such as the hike in VAT) and global (a rising oil price following the Arab Spring) pushed inflation higher in 2011, but as different households spend a  differing proportion of their income on different items, the impact of rising prices has been far from uniform.

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