Politics

Politics
Queen’s Speech immigration measures: objectionable and unworkable

8th May 2013 — Filed under: Politics, Society & Welfare

Rosa Crawford

The Queen’s Speech today announced details of the Government’s new Immigration Bill. The precise details of the bill remain sketchy, but details the Government has released so far include proposals to regulate migrants’ access to the NHS, increase fines against businesses using illegal labour, require private landlords to check tenants’ status, and prevent illegal immigrants from obtaining driving licenses.

The economics behind this is utterly flawed. Migrants already contribute more in tax than they take in services as the Business for New Europe report released today notes, and EU migrants are proportionately less likely to claim benefits than the resident population.

But we know that the Government is not pursuing this line on migration due to economic demand. Instead they are making a cynical move to fend off accusations by the right of the Conservative Party that they had no credible response to UKIP. who captured so many votes last week with a stridently anti-migrant message.

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Economics
Growth and Living Standards: What’s the connection?

29th April 2013 — Filed under: Economics, Politics

Tim Page

There was plenty of food for thought on offer at the Resolution Foundation this morning, as Peter Kellner, Penny Young, Stewart Wood and Danny Finkelstein debated whether the 2015 poll would be the ‘Living Standards Election’.

Kellner’s latest research for YouGov showed, perhaps unsurprisingly, that Conservative voters tend to think that fiscal responsibility is the nation’s biggest economic priority, whereas Labour voters opt for growth. Kellner concluded that this gives the Tories a potential advantage, as some growth in the next two years, even if lower than is desirable, may feed into a belief that the Coalition has delivered both objectives.

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Politics
Being tough on mythical migration problems won’t help the poor of Eastleigh

26th March 2013 — Filed under: Politics

Rosa Crawford

Burned by the effect of the Eastleigh byelection surprise success for UKIP, recent weeks have seen the coalition government announcing more and more measures to deter people coming and working in the country, desperate to win back voters. Yesterday it was David Cameron’s turn to flex his muscles, making a speech in Ipswich, where he declared he would introduce rules to make it harder for migrants to claim benefits and – the phrase that pays – ‘crack down’ on illegal immigrants.

Cameron’s speech was shot full of holes on the grounds of factual accuracy almost as soon as it had been delivered. Many pointed out, fewer migrants claim benefits than British nationals and their eligibility for social housing is already limited in many cases. But there’s another reason why Cameron’s speech was the wrong response to the wrong issue.

Let’s listen to why people in Eastleigh said they voted for UKIP. Their stories reveal a central, but ignored concern they have about living in poverty.

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Economics
Budget 2013 – What’s in it for industry?

20th March 2013 — Filed under: Economics, Politics

Tim Page

So Budget 2013 has been delivered. How should industry react? In my view, one cheer, perhaps one-and-a-half, would be the order of the day.

In fact, the Government’s decision to stage certain Budget-related announcements in advance means there was not too much for industry in today’s statement that we didn’t already know. The two key announcements – the new Aerospace Technology Institute, announced by Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, and the Government’s acceptance of most (but not quite all) of Michael Heseltine’s recommendations from his ‘No Stone Unturned’ report – both came on Monday.

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Economics
The ‘Grillo’ effect and the future of democracy

26th February 2013 — Filed under: Economics, Politics

Tim Page

What should we make of the Italian General Election? Friends of mine reading this post know that I have family in Italy and I spend most of my holiday time there, so I’ve been taking a close interest in the election campaign since the turn of the year. Lots of people are having their two-pennyworth this morning and I’ve been reflecting on what yesterday’s results mean for democracy.

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Environment
EU budget: smaller but better is not yet an option

5th February 2013 — Filed under: Environment, International, Politics

Owen Tudor

The debate on the EU budget for the next few years (snappily known as the Multi-Annual Financial Framework) is pretty toxic in the UK, with the Coalition’s proposal that the budget be frozen undercut by a successful Tory backbench rebellion calling for cuts that secured Labour support. Prime Minister David Cameron heads over to Brussels for the next stage in the long running budget saga this Thursday/Friday.

There’s a general sense that the EU wastes money, and that – in times of austerity around Europe – the EU budget should be cut like any other state spending. Unions have been wary of making this argument, partly because it sits uneasily with our arguments against austerity generally and also because those wanting a cut or a freeze in the EU budget have played to Europhobic sentiments generally.

But almost all the heat generated is about the overall size of the budget (the debate seems to be over €30bn spread over 27 countries – a miniscule proportion of overall public expenditure) - not the far more important issue of what it is spent on. And the only realistic options on the table seem to be cutting back on important spending or increasing the overall EU budget. Spending less, but better, is not going to happen, at least in the short term.

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Politics
A European tale of Cameron’s friends: win some, lose some…

11th January 2013 — Filed under: Politics

Owen Tudor

The Sun says that David Cameron has a new best friend in Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who it says will join his call for powers to be repatriated from the EU to national goverments when he gives his much trailled big speech on Europe, perhaps later this month (and perhaps in the Netherlands). But as Cameron picks up one supporter, he appears to be losing them faster in slightly more significant countries. Like Germany and the USA. And, it seems, even in British business.

He may not even have the Dutch on board, according to the Mail Online. “Stephan Schrover, official spokesman for Mr Rutte, told MailOnline that far from being signed up to Mr Cameron’s vision for Europe ‘we not aware of information about it’.”

Cameron is calling for the return of powers from Brussels (especially over social measures like working time) so that he can at the same time promise an in-out referendum and win it on the basis that he has changed the EU into something the British public will vote for. His strategy is based on the assumption that by talking tough over Europe, he can appear Eurosceptic enough to win over voters deserting the Tories for UKIP and Tory rebels, win the next General Election, and still stay in a European Union reduced to an unrestricted (you know, by things like labour rights) free trade zone.

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Economics
Heseltine Review: a trade union response

31st October 2012 — Filed under: Economics, Politics

Tim Page

This morning saw the publication of ‘No Stone Unturned’, the long-awaited report of the Heseltine Review. The TUC has been happy to engage with Lord Heseltine and his team throughout the review process. We met him early, as did representatives of various business organisations and many others. We attended evidence gathering sessions and contributed our ideas. We gave our response to emerging themes. In the report itself, Lord Heseltine graciously recognises our role in kick-starting his initiative, stating that “[w]hen the CBI, the TUC and The Times newspaper are united in calling for an industrial strategy, the issue deserves serious consideration”.

So what do I think of it? I think ‘No Stone Unturned’ is the most important economic policy statement to have emerged since the Coalition took office in the summer of 2010.

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International
Lithuania: “If the IMF lived here, they’d vote for the PM!”

14th October 2012 — Filed under: International, Politics

Owen Tudor

But as Kestutis Girnius, a teacher in Vilnius, told Reuters, the IMF don’t, and ”they could not live on a Lithuanian salary.” Lithuanians, if exit polls are to be believed, today voted their centre-right Prime Minister out, in favour of a left-of-centre coalition who pledged a higher minimum wage, higher taxes on the rich, and job creation measures.

Kestutis was expressing the widely held view that the Homeland Union government of Andrius Kubilius was a poster boy for IMF-inspired austerity (the kind the IMF now accepts harms the economy, although Lithuania grew by 5.8% last year, bouncing back from one of the deepest recessions in northern Europe: GDP plunged by 15.7% in the first nine months of 2009.) He took office from the left of centre Social Democrats in 2008, and they appear to have bounced back into government – although as junior partners with the Labour Party - after sharp cuts in public spending, wages and pensions.

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International
Europe: in, out or shake it all about?

14th October 2012 — Filed under: International, Politics

Owen Tudor

The Conservative voices calling for UK membership of the EU to be reviewed were louder than ever today, with Michael Gove and Philip Hammond joining the chorus. This is almost certainly very bad politics for the Conservatives, as it will keep the party split over Europe open and festering. But it’s also very bad news for British workers, too, if those who want to restructure the relationship between Britain and the EU get their allegedly middle way.

The party politics is clear. Labour needs to steer well clear of this spat (even though that might make it look like they have little to say on the day’s top news story), although the Liberal Democrats could use the issue to rebuild some of their deservedly lost political capital by being the grown up part of the coalition. But for Tories able to think just two or three moves ahead, this is a slow motion car crash in action. The Conservative debate is being played out between outright and ‘moderate’ scepticsm, with the Prime Minister dragged along behind them, which is not really what ‘leadership’ traditionally means.

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