Recession? Maybe but what to do about it?
The EU’s prediction of recession in the UK is widely reported. More importantly, a debate about how to respond is slowly taking shape. A good article by Seumus Milne in The Guardian today on this and Paul Mason on Newsnight yesterday quoted figures from my previous post on a fiscal stimulus. Paul suggested the Government may be considering this option.
As I suggest in that post though, the longer we leave any stimulus the more it may cost to have an impact. If it’s to happen, it probably needs to be announced in the Pre-Budget Report in October and needs to be implemented immediately. If we wait until the Budget itself, we will probably already have suffered two quarters of negative growth with all the implications for jobs, pay and enterprise.