From the TUC

OBR forecasts unemployment of 2.5 million until 2012

06 Sep 2010, by in Economics, Labour market

A few weeks ago the Office for Budget Responsibility published a range of supplementary forecast information – including a labour market forecast for unemployment and employment until 2016. While the new document breaks claimant unemployment rates, ILO unemployment rates and employment levels down by quarter, the totals appear the same as were indicated by the Budget’s forecast of annual change. But the new forecast also includes an important new column – ILO unemployment levels. This analysis provides three stark messages:

  • ILO unemployment is expected to start to rise again at the end of this year, hitting 2.6 million (its highest level since the recession began) and remaining there until the third quarter of 2011.
  • Unemployment is expected to remain at 2.5 million until early 2012.
  • Even in 2016, unemployment is set to remain significantly higher than its pre-recessionary levels.

With evidence mounting that the OBR’s employment forecasts are already optimistic, this is further bad news for the UK’s jobseekers.

4 Responses to OBR forecasts unemployment of 2.5 million until 2012

  1. Brian Day
    Sep 6th 2010, 9:24 pm

    Probably means the number of long-term unemployed will remain as it is until at least 2012 and maybe increase. Great!

  2. OBR forecasts unemployment of 2.5 million until 2012 | ToUChstone … | Jobless Bloggers
    Sep 7th 2010, 3:19 am

    […] Continue reading here: OBR forecasts unemployment of 2.5 million until 2012 | ToUChstone … […]

  3. Chayoung Jeong
    Sep 7th 2010, 11:44 am

    waht a gloomy news?
    so, where exactly the trade union movement has to stand in this harsh economic circumstances?
    how can we help all members who face a stage of redundancy or already been redundant or struggling find another job?
    how can we, trade union keep our promise to members that the union’s first priority is to protect their job security?
    not easy question to answer though? just feel sorry to workers who have been in out of job for months and months?
    I beleive this news will make them more frustrate.

  4. Spending cuts mean high unemployment is here to stay | ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC
    Sep 10th 2010, 10:43 am

    […] private sector investment, will mean unemployment is likely to rise in the immediate term (as the OBR have forecast) and that unemployment levels are likely to stay high for some time. After the 1980s and 1990s […]