From the TUC

Earnings growth of 2.1% while inflation heads for 5%

21 Jan 2011, by Guest in Labour market

Average weekly earnings grew at 2.1% in the year to November 2010 while RPI inflation hit 4.8% in December, the month before VAT rises to 20%. This means that over the course of 2010 most employees have seen a reduction of nearly 3 percentage points in the value of their earnings. Figures from the Office for National Statistic released on 19 January show overall earnings growth is consistent with the IDS measure of pay settlements which rose at the median from 2% to 2.2% in the last months 2010.

The real picture, however, is uneven with earnings growth stronger in some parts of the economy and weaker elsewhere.

The latest Average Weekly Earnings figures show an annual rate of growth of 4.2% in finance and business services, which makes up 20% of employment in the economy. Earnings growth was also strong in manufacturing at 3.5%, with 9% of employment.

Earnings growth overall in the private sector was weak at 1.9% because the higher growth in finance and manufacturing was offset by weak growth in the lower paying sector of wholesale, retail and hospitality (representing 23% of employment). Here the annual rate of growth was a mere 1.2% with the average weekly earnings flat at £295 a week between August and November, despite a rise in the National Minimum Wage of 2.2% in October.

A further downward pressure on private sector earnings came in construction (with 5% of  overall employment), where annual earnings  were negative for the fourth month running. They fell by -1.3 in the year to November.

Meanwhile, average weekly earnings in the public sector (with 22% of employment) grew at 2.2% in the year to November, having been fairly flat at this level through 2010. Earnings here will probably fall back towards 1% as more pay freezes kick in this year.

Private sector earnings may become stronger overall if pay growth returns in construction where there are several January 2011 increases coming through after previous pay freezes. For example, there are January 2011 rises of 4.7% in the national industry agreement for engineering construction and 3% in the plumbing industry.

NOTE: Union officers amongst others will be interested in the conference on Pay Bargaining in an Age of Austerity being organised by Incomes Data Services and the TUC. The conference, on 15 February, will look at the politics of the shift from RPI to CPI, the economic context for this year’s pay round, the future of occupational pensions and developments in regional pay. There are generous discounts for unions making group bookings – contact us for more information at: [email protected]
GUEST POST: Alastair Hatchett is Head of Pay and HR Services at Incomes Data Services, having been the editor of the IDS Pay Report for 20 years until 2005. He leads several teams of researchers whose work on pay and HR studies is highly respected and widely quoted in management, union and government circles. He has been involved in a range of research projects over the past decade for the Low Pay Commission, the Pay Review Bodies, the CIPD, the EOC, Government Departments and a range of unions. He is a regular conference speaker on reward issues, the labour market and employment trends. He is a fellow of the Royal Society of Arts and the Royal Statistical Society.

One Response to Earnings growth of 2.1% while inflation heads for 5%

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