More evidence our problems began before the Euro zone started to fray
The evidence mounts by the day that the UK’s decline into stagnation pre-dates the problems in the Euro Area. Today’s item is the Eurostat data for industrial production in October. The figures for changes from October 2010 show clearly that, while industrial production in the Euro Area was 1.3 per cent higher in October 2011, in the UK it was 2 per cent lower:
|
Country |
Percentage increase from October 2010 |
|
Ireland |
12.2 |
|
Sweden |
6.0 |
|
Germany |
4.2 |
|
France |
1.4 |
|
Euro Area |
1.3 |
|
European Union |
1.3 |
|
Portugal |
0.6 |
|
Denmark |
-0.3 |
|
Netherlands |
-2.0 |
|
United Kingdom |
-2.0 |
|
Spain |
-4.0 |
|
Italy |
-4.2 |
|
Finland |
-6.0 |
|
Greece |
-12.4 |
If we look at the industrial production indices for the Euro Area and the UK (2005 = 100) we can see that the index has been falling in this country since the start of the year. In the Euro Area the downward trend begins in the summer:
|
Production indices for total industry excluding construction, SA |
||
|
Month |
EA17 |
UK |
|
Oct-10 |
99.3 |
90.7 |
|
Nov-10 |
100.4 |
91.1 |
|
Dec-10 |
100.5 |
91.3 |
|
Jan-11 |
100.7 |
91.5 |
|
Feb-11 |
101.2 |
90.4 |
|
Mar-11 |
101.2 |
90.5 |
|
Apr-11 |
101.4 |
89 |
|
May-11 |
101.5 |
89.7 |
|
Jun-11 |
100.9 |
89.9 |
|
Jul-11 |
101.8 |
89.5 |
|
Aug-11 |
103 |
89.8 |
|
Sep-11 |
101 |
89.8 |
|
Oct-11 |
101 |
89.2 |
Given that manufacturing exports were supposed to be leading us back to growth in a “march of the makers”, the fact that industrial production is down on 2010 is depressing enough, the fact that it is down on 2005 is proof of how hard this country’s output has been hit.