What do the public think about the recovery?
There’s a fascinating recent poll commissioned by Shelter from Populous. It was reported mainly for its finding that rising house prices are not as universally popular as some assume. But its findings on recovery are even more interesting.
Populus asked:
Thinking about the next General Election in 2015, what do you think will be the most important issue in determining which party’s candidate you are likely to vote for?
The table below sets out the top three single most important issues:
|
|
All |
Men |
Women |
Con |
Lab |
LD |
UKIP |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Cost of living |
24 |
23 |
25 |
16 |
32 |
24 |
12 |
|
The economy |
20 |
25 |
15 |
34 |
17 |
26 |
7 |
|
Immigration |
14 |
13 |
15 |
20 |
10 |
10 |
40 |
The “cost of living” beats both “the economy” and “immigration”, particularly for women. Only among UKIP voters do economic considerations get swamped by concerns about immigration.
Populus then asked:
Which, if any, of the following would make an economic recovery feel real for you and your family?
|
All |
Men |
Women |
Con |
Lab |
LD |
UKIP |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Rising wages |
49 |
50 |
48 |
42 |
57 |
51 |
48 |
|
Falling unemployment |
36 |
39 |
32 |
35 |
38 |
42 |
39 |
|
Falling inflation |
24 |
26 |
21 |
25 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
|
Rising interest rates |
22 |
25 |
19 |
31 |
18 |
26 |
32 |
|
Stable inflation |
22 |
24 |
19 |
27 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
|
GDP growth |
21 |
29 |
13 |
30 |
19 |
29 |
28 |
|
Stable house prices |
16 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
18 |
19 |
|
Stable interest rates |
15 |
16 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
13 |
18 |
|
Rising house prices |
10 |
13 |
8 |
16 |
8 |
14 |
13 |
|
Falling house prices |
6 |
5 |
7 |
2 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
|
Falling interest rates |
6 |
5 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
|
Rising inflation |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
– |
|
Don’t know |
10 |
7 |
13 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
5 |
Almost half of respondents make rising wages the most popular indicator of whether any economic recovery will feel real for them. This goes against the view that people see the living standards crisis as a price issue, rather than a wages issue.
Populus then asked all respondents if they thought a national economic recovery “is underway” or whether they took the view that there was “no sign” of one.
Some 38% of those sampled agreed that a recovery was underway. This group were then asked whether they felt part of that recovery:
|
|
All |
Men |
Women |
Con |
Lab |
LD |
UKIP |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
I feel part of the current national economic recovery |
29 |
30 |
27 |
33 |
26 |
30 |
17 |
|
I do not feel part of the current national economic recovery |
44 |
43 |
46 |
34 |
57 |
50 |
56 |
|
Agree/disagree equally with both statements |
27 |
27 |
28 |
32 |
17 |
20 |
27 |
[Don’t forget: this is only among the 38% who lean towards ‘there is a national economic recovery underway’]
So only 29% of a group which is already just 38% of the population feet part of a recovery:
This is just 11% of the population.
Allan
Nov 21st 2013, 5:15 pm
Sadly none of the questions included anything about the £3,000 per second that we borrowed last month. Yes, £3,000 every second of every minute of every day; and £30,000 since you started reading.
Elainor Walsh
Nov 22nd 2013, 6:56 pm
I think the “upturn” release is propaganda timely released in order to get the public spending for Christmas, sadly I do not believe there is an upturn in the way it has been released. People are no longer being squeezed , there is nothing left to squeeze, we are now being wrung out.
Living wages: how development doesn’t end at home | ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC
Nov 24th 2013, 10:42 pm
[…] Wage Week showed how important wages are in British politics: as my colleague Nigel Stanley has pointed out, a living standards election is really about pay, not prices. But wages are, of course, central to […]