From the TUC

One North?

05 Aug 2014, by in Economics

To try and make political capital from the regional economic performance is bold indeed. We should remind ourselves of the actual historic performance of the North and other regions and countries behind the Treasury’s imaginative projections and striking billions of pounds.

For the data show that under the coalition regional economic disparities have seen a significant deterioration.

The ONS make readily available regional figures in cash terms from 1997 to 2012 (it is unclear how the HMT analysis extended to 1994).

The chart below shows the GVA of the North (North East plus North West) against the UK as a whole. After a decade of moving pretty much in line, ground lost ahead of the recession was nearly made up by 2009, but since the advent of the Coalition, the disparity has shifted to a historic high.

Nominal GVA, 1997=100

 image001
As a share of UK GVA, the next chart shows the North GVA at a historic low: below 12½ per cent in both 2011 and 2012.

GVA in the North as share of UK, per cent

 image001

Across all ‘NUTS1’ regions, the story is the same. The table below compares region and country shares of UK GVA before and after 2010. Plainly not all regions can have a falling share, but the assessment shows the most unequal shift in distribution possible, with all regions and countries seeing a falling share of income, except London (England being held up only by London). London powers on even in spite of the likely disproportionate impact from the financial crisis.

 

1997-2009

2010-2012

Difference

   North

12.8

12.5

-0.3

   North East

3.1

3.0

-0.1

   North West

9.7

9.5

-0.2

Yorkshire and The Humber

7.0

6.8

-0.2

East Midlands

5.9

5.8

-0.1

West Midlands

7.6

7.1

-0.5

East of England

8.6

8.4

-0.2

London

20.4

22.1

1.7

South East

14.6

14.5

-0.1

South West

7.4

7.4

0.0

England

84.4

84.8

0.4

Wales

3.5

3.4

-0.1

Scotland

7.9

7.7

-0.2

Northern Ireland

2.2

2.1

-0.1

Plainly nobody wants to dismiss initiatives to resolve this disturbing state of affairs. The question is whether the newly announced policies are adequate to the task of reducing not only a major and long-standing economic failure, but one that has got worse under the policies of the Coalition.

One Response to One North?

  1. One in three jobs goes to London | ToUChstone blog: A public policy blog from the TUC
    Sep 26th 2014, 2:57 pm

    […] per cent and the rest of the UK by 1.3 per cent. The North East, part of the Government’s ‘One North’ initiative, showed the lowest growth on the year of 0.6 per […]