From the TUC

Duncan Weldon's Articles

Financial Repression & Deficit Reduction

06 Jan 2014, by in Economics

The Chancellor today has announced that spending cuts will continue after the next election: We’ve got to make more cuts – £17bn this coming year, £20bn next year, and over £25bn further across the two years after. I say ‘announced’ but actually there was little here that was new in the totals – they were…

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Building a sustainable recovery

16 Dec 2013, by in Economics

I’m rather keen, as regular readers will know, of ‘big picture’ macro posts on the UK economy. I’m often at my happiest when writing about the need for ‘renewal rather than recovery’, talking about rebalancing as effectively transforming the national business model or when noting that political economy trumps macroeconomics. This self indulgence arguably reached…

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What’s behind the wage squeeze?

13 Dec 2013, by in Economics

CITY AM’s Allister Heath had an op-ed in the Telegraph this week on the driving factors behind the UK’s living standards squeeze. To be entirely honest I opened this article with a sense of trepidation and didn’t expect to agree with much of it at all. I was pleasantly surprised therefore to find that I…

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Secular stagnation & the new stylised facts of growth

12 Dec 2013, by in Economics

Stylised facts are a useful tool for macroeconomists. To quote Wikipedia: The term “stylised facts” was introduced by the economist Nicholas Kaldor in the context of a debate on economic growth theory in 1961, expanding on model assumptions made in a 1957 paper.Criticizing the neoclassical models of economic growth of his time, Kaldor argues that…

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Recovery or Renewal? Cyclical, Structural & Secular Trends

09 Dec 2013, by in Economics

Following last week’s new OBR forecasts there has been active debate as to whether the UK is currently experiencing a cyclical or a structural recovery. This is a highly technical but also potentially politically important debate given the nature of the Chancellor’s self-imposed fiscal rules. (Summary in italics below on the nature of structural and…

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We’re back in the old growth model

05 Dec 2013, by in Economics

Today the OBR revised growth up due to big increases in their consumption forecasts. At the same time they revised down their forecasts of average earnings growth. So, simply put – households are now expected to spend more but earn less than was the case in March. This fits the pattern of the recovery we…

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