From the TUC

Duncan Weldon's Articles

Wages, Compensation & Growth

04 Dec 2013, by in Economics

I’ve already blogged on the Treasury analysis of pay, productivity and total employee cost. As I said earlier this week, I don’t find it especially convincing but the debate is rumbling on and is a very important one. Allister Heath today writes that: So there you have it: if the Treasury numbers stack up, the…

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Does the Treasury story on wages stack up?

02 Dec 2013, by in Economics

Today sees the release (sort of!) of two important analysis of living standards. The first comes from the ONS and shows that the median disposable income of a non-retired household has fell by 6.4% between 2007/8 and 2011/12. The second comes from the Treasury and has been reported by the FT and Sky although the…

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Funding for Lending: A Big & Important Change

28 Nov 2013, by in Economics

The Bank of England is amending the Funding for Lending Scheme from next year so banks will no longer be able to access cheap finance for mortgage borrowing. Instead the scheme will be entirely focused on SMEs. This is both news and good news. As the Bank says today: Although the growth in household loan…

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GDP Data: Some Mysteries

27 Nov 2013, by in Economics

The second estimate of GDP in many ways hasn’t told us anything we didn’t already know – output is expanding at a reasonable clip whilst incomes are squeezed. Of the 0.8% growth in the third quarter, more than half (0.5%) came from household consumption – despite an ongoing squeeze in real wages. I suspect the…

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Secular Stagnation & Keynes

22 Nov 2013, by in Economics

The secular stagnation debate is producing some excellent blogging. On Wednesday I argued that stagnation, bubbles & inequality were all linked – a point picked up by Rick at Flip Chart Fairy Tales, who writes that: In other words, the corporate executives of the early postwar world paid their workers high wages. This increased demand…

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Secular stagnation, bubbles & inequality

20 Nov 2013, by in Economics

The big debate in global macroeconomics over the past week has been in response to Larry Summer’s IMF speech on ‘secular stagnation’, the idea that Western economies are set  for years of low growth. Summers asked if the US and other advanced economies could suffer the fate of Japan. As Miles Kimball has noted, the…

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The Autumn Statement: What to Expect

19 Nov 2013, by in Economics

In two and half weeks time the Chancellor will make his Autumn Statement and the Office for Budget Responsibility will release its new forecasts for the UK economy. This Autumn Statement looks to to be very different in content and style to the more sombre affairs of 2011 and 2012. For most of the last…

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Big change versus small change. Or why 2015 isn’t 1997.

18 Nov 2013, by in Economics

Stefan Stern has interesting post up at LabourList asking if there is a danger of history repeating itself. As he argues in the mid 1990s Labour flirted with a variety of alternative theories of political economy from communitarianism to Will Hutton’s ‘stakeholder economy’ but: …come May 2nd 1997 the practical business of government, and necessary…

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Building a better economy

14 Nov 2013, by in Economics

Yesterday the Bank of England told us that the ‘recovery had finally arrived’. It caveated this with important warnings about the lack real wage growth, the elevated level of unemployment and the current pattern of growth but the headlines have chosen, in most cases, to put aside these concerns. The ignoring of these caveats and…

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