From the TUC

Geoff Tily's Articles

2% not 4% continuous pay growth – the ONS response

12 Mar 2015, by in Economics

We are grateful to the ONS for their response to yesterday’s piece on pay growth for those in continuous employment. Our concern is that the 4.1 per cent figure has been widely used as guide to central, average or underlying experience in the economy. For example, in the Autumn Statement the Treasury stated that: ‘those…

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Largest decline in the production of capital goods for six years

11 Mar 2015, by in Economics

ONS figures today show manufacturing output falling -0.5 per cent between December 2014 and January 2015. Overall, the index of production (which includes energy use and extraction) fell by only -0.1 per cent, because mining and quarrying rose by 2.0 per cent (related to the extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas). More generally, manufacturing output has…

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Retail sales are strong because of intensified deflation, not subsiding deflation

09 Mar 2015, by in Economics

Another ‘good deflation’ story in the FT today: ‘fears of damaging deflationary spiral subside’. Strong retail sales growth is regarded at odds with ‘pessimists’ predictions’ of ‘falling prices and weak demand tainting the world economy’. But an alternative interpretation of the same figures is that all strong retail sales figures show us is the intensity…

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Productivity: no puzzle about it

05 Mar 2015, by in Economics

TUC work issued today contests widely-held views that weak growth in productivity is down to failures of skills and/or other defects with the structure of the economy. Our research shows instead that the government’s austerity policies should take most of the blame for the productivity failures of recent years. From a policy perspective, gains in…

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