From the TUC

Geoff Tily's Articles

OECD Economic Survey on the UK: All hail the ‘long-term plan’

24 Feb 2015, by in Economics

The OECD today accomplished a miracle, hailing the long-term plan, making departures from the plan seem natural, all with the illusion of delivery. “What a difference effective economic policies can make”, Ángel Gurría (the Secretary-General) gushed at the press conference, making his own the Treasury line that the deficit had been “halved”. [In June 2010 the…

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UK household debt: still amongst the highest in the world

12 Feb 2015, by in Economics

With the publication of the McKinsey report, Debt and (not much) deleveraging, debt is back in the news. But while McKinsey (an ultra-prestigious consultancy) appears to seek deleveraging, the UK is poised to head in the opposite direction. As widely recognised, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) forecast now shows household debt in 2019 at…

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The slowest recovery in modern history slows down

27 Jan 2015, by in Economics

GDP figures today disappointed expectations, with growth slowing for the second quarter in row, and increasingly departing already from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility forecast. In numbers: growth slowed to 0.5% in the last quarter of 2014, from 0.7% in the third quarter. This defied city expectations for 0.6%. The first official estimate for growth in…

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Core inflation is far from “relatively stable”

14 Jan 2015, by in Economics

There’s a lot of “good deflation” stories in the media today.  (“Almost certainly” so, according to the FT.) One of the common themes sets the large fall in headline inflation against a rise on the month in “core” inflation (i.e. inflation excluding energy, food, tobacco and alcohol), though the Chancellor goes much further: “Core inflation, which…

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Deutsche Bank U-turn on deflation

13 Jan 2015, by in Economics

At 0.5%, CPI inflation in December fell below the consensus forecast (0.7%) and way below the Bank of England’s November Inflation Report forecast for 1.0%. This is approaching deflationary territory, and I set out my own views yesterday. Understandably the government is desperately trying to portray the outcome as a good thing (with falling petrol…

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