From the TUC

Geoff Tily's Articles

Productivity: the long global view

26 May 2017, by in Economics

We’re often told that the key to raising wages is to solve the ‘productivity puzzle’. Output per worker has stagnated since the financial crisis, leading economists to worry that the outlook for the economy is bleak. But a range of evidence across many countries suggests that the fall in productivity can be dated back to…

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Too early to call time on the consumer spending boom

22 Apr 2017, by in Economics

Retail sales have seen their worst decline since 2010. But rising consumer credit figures suggest we’re not at the end of the consumer spending boom just yet. Retail sales volumes declined by -1.4% in the first quarter of 2017, the worse quarterly decline since the first quarter of 2010  (itself the worst quarterly decline on…

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In the Budget Philip Hammond said rising real wages were ‘most important’ – what happened?

12 Apr 2017, by in Economics

8 March 2017, Philip Hammond’s Budget Speech: And most importantly, Mr Deputy Speaker, despite higher-than-target inflation, real wages continue to rise in every year of the forecast. [my emphasis] 12 April 2017, only five weeks later, statistics from ONS Labour Market statistics release show: on the single month measure, real wages in decline by -0.4%,…

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A note on the economic impact of Roosevelt’s New Deal

06 Apr 2017, by in Economics

This post is brief background to a longer piece that views Roosevelt’s economics through his impact on Washington D.C. The economic statistics show his initiatives brought the US great depression to a decisive end; they also stabilised the deterioration in the public sector finances. Yet the efforts can be dismissed as trivial. A former Chair…

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Controversies around inflation measurement: Have annual real wages fallen by £2,100 or £1,200 or £800?

22 Mar 2017, by in Economics

Whatever way you look at it, this week’s inflation figures illustrate the threat to living standards that result from the fall in sterling after the referendum. Headline inflation in February rose to 2.3%. Last week’s average earnings data for January (regular pay) was 2.3%. Real earnings growth is therefore zero. If as is likely inflation…

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