Pay growth down and inflation up means the lowest real pay growth for more than two years, and the sharpest decline on the month since the global recession in 2009. Average earnings growth slowed to 2.3% in January 2017 from 2.6 % in December Inflation rose to 1.8% in January from 1.6% in December Real…
Yesterday we set the Chancellor four tests for whether his Budget would deliver for working people. Today we have no good news to report. This wasn’t a budget for living standards, it didn’t give the British economy the investment it needs to see us through the uncertainty of Brexit, and public services remain under severe…
As she started her campaign to be Prime Minister, Theresa May promised to put the power of government in the service of working people. So far, there’s little sign that the Chancellor has got the message, with his pre-budget interviews focusing on ‘fiscal discipline’ at the same time as pressing ahead with unnecessary cuts to…
Over 2008 to 2015, UK real wages fell by 1% a year. This puts the UK 103rd out of 112 countries for wage growth over the post-crisis period, on the basis of International Labour Organisation figures. The average wage growth across all countries was +2.3% a year and the median +1.6%. There were real wage declines…
The new official GDP figures out today paint a worrying picture for the longer term, despite many of the headlines. Our economy is severely imbalanced – totally reliant on consumer spending to stay afloat, with no sign of the Chancellor’s promised rally in investment. That’s particularly concerning as we seek to build a sustainable future outside…
Today Lord Kerslake (the head of the home civil service, 2012-2014) published his independent review of the Treasury, with launch events in London and Manchester. The report was commissioned by Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell; TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady was on the panel amongst others (the report is available here). The commentary so far has…
The days of the credit crunch can seem to be well and truly behind us. 2016 was the second successive year when bank lending to the economy was in positive territory – that is the total loans issued were greater than repayments. In total bank (net) lending in 2016 was £79bn, up from £39bn in…
Today 2016 Q4 GDP figures showed growth of 0.6 %, and the economy continuing to survive the Brexit vote. But we should not lose the wood for the trees. The economy is still bearing serious scars of the financial crisis and the austerity which followed. Today’s figures also give us an annual figure for GDP…
There are countless reasons to not get carried away by today’s pay growth figures – with regular pay in the private sector hitting 3 per cent in November. (To recap: with accelerating inflation, real pay growth has stalled at 1.7% and is likely to get worse. We’ve been here before: with nominal private sector pay…
The current debate on globalization is characterised by the idea that trade is becoming more and more important to prosperity. A very standard illustration shows trade growth as a share of GDP progressively increasing over the last 50 years – see Annex. (NB this post is background to ‘Globalisation isn’t a given’ – co-authored by…